Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (87%) · No at 92¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 27, 2027

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Wed, Jan 27, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 87%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$59.79

Smart Money Entry

88.9¢ → 92¢

+3% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,322

Combined PnL+$54.13

Yes2 traders

Total Value$31.52

Total Shares478

Combined PnL+$5.66

No — 87%Yes — 13%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

339h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

87% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73	Noavg 88¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	-$13.46	37% 219-366 (585)
AN anothercoin	Noavg 87.4¢	$216.31	$232.65	+$16.34	49% 527-555 (1082)
LP lpgb	Noavg 88.5¢	$151.54	$156.21	+$4.67	26% 353-995 (1348)
Lucerys	Noavg 93.7¢	$112.36	$110.27	-$2.09	79% 12088-3268 (15356)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 88.5¢	$92.95	$98.7	+$5.75	61% 15726-10029 (25755)
Istaroth	Noavg 91.4¢	$129.85	$85.93	+$2.95	15% 435-2472 (2907)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$64.05	$62.23	-$1.41	51% 3540-3430 (6970)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 94.1¢	$55.31	$55.22	-$0.08	38% 997-1606 (2603)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$49.19	$49.04	-$0.15	41% 1145-1641 (2786)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 83.3¢	$31.65	$35.71	+$1.4	27% 6766-18641 (25407)
AN anoin123CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.7¢	$10.66	$16.27	+$5.62	46% 490-570 (1060)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.6¢	$15.2	$15.25	+$0.04	18% 4236-19937 (24173)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$21.43	$9.85	+$40.38	73% 13591-5101 (18692)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 93.4¢	$9.59	$9.45	-$0.14	39% 1003-1586 (2589)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$9.43	$9.4	-$0.03	43% 2149-2803 (4952)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73

Invested

$1,198.39

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$13.46

Record

37%

219-366 (585)

anothercoin

Invested

$216.31

Value

$232.65

PnL

+$16.34

Record

49%

527-555 (1082)

lpgb

Invested

$151.54

Value

$156.21

PnL

+$4.67

Record

26%

353-995 (1348)

Lucerys

Invested

$112.36

Value

$110.27

PnL

-$2.09

Record

79%

12088-3268 (15356)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$92.95

Value

$98.7

PnL

+$5.75

Record

61%

15726-10029 (25755)

Istaroth

Invested

$129.85

Value

$85.93

PnL

+$2.95

Record

15%

435-2472 (2907)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$64.05

Value

$62.23

PnL

-$1.41

Record

51%

3540-3430 (6970)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$55.31

Value

$55.22

PnL

-$0.08

Record

38%

997-1606 (2603)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$49.19

Value

$49.04

PnL

-$0.15

Record

41%

1145-1641 (2786)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$31.65

Value

$35.71

PnL

+$1.4

Record

27%

6766-18641 (25407)

anoin123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.66

Value

$16.27

PnL

+$5.62

Record

46%

490-570 (1060)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.2

Value

$15.25

PnL

+$0.04

Record

18%

4236-19937 (24173)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$21.43

Value

$9.85

PnL

+$40.38

Record

73%

13591-5101 (18692)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$9.59

Value

$9.45

PnL

-$0.14

Record

39%

1003-1586 (2589)

123987456<$100

Invested

$9.43

Value

$9.4

PnL

-$0.03

Record

43%

2149-2803 (4952)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

339h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

87% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.