Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 93¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 27, 2027

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Wed, Jan 27, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$41.54

Smart Money Entry

88.6¢ → 93¢

+5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,930

Combined PnL+$11.87

Yes3 traders

Total Value$70.97

Total Shares546

Combined PnL+$29.67

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

345h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73	Noavg 88¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$13.54	40% 273-416 (689)
AN anothercoin	Noavg 87.4¢	$216.31	$215.33	-$0.99	50% 634-639 (1273)
Lucerys	Noavg 93.7¢	$112.36	$104.28	-$8.08	78% 12472-3601 (16073)
Istaroth	Noavg 91.4¢	$143.36	$79.53	-$2.17	15% 459-2699 (3158)
2B9SARB<$100	Noavg 90.1¢	$65.66	$78.75	+$13.09	18% 4276-20026 (24302)
└ No leg	Noavg 90.1¢	$50.46	$48.72	-$1.74
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 6.6¢	$15.2	$30.03	+$14.83
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 94.1¢	$55.31	$51.11	-$4.2	39% 1066-1669 (2735)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 7.7¢	$108.18	$35.62	+$23.49	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 83.3¢	$31.65	$33.05	+$1.4	27% 6823-18740 (25563)
AN anoin123CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.7¢	$26.44	$32.06	+$5.61	45% 506-621 (1127)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$21.43	$9.12	+$39.65	72% 13908-5278 (19186)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$9.43	$8.7	-$0.2	44% 2186-2829 (5015)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.6¢	$7.35	$3.29	+$0.57	58% 19424-14279 (33703)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73

Invested

$1,198.39

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$13.54

Record

40%

273-416 (689)

anothercoin

Invested

$216.31

Value

$215.33

PnL

-$0.99

Record

50%

634-639 (1273)

Lucerys

Invested

$112.36

Value

$104.28

PnL

-$8.08

Record

78%

12472-3601 (16073)

Istaroth

Invested

$143.36

Value

$79.53

PnL

-$2.17

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

2B9SARB<$100

Invested

$65.66

Value

$78.75

PnL

+$13.09

Record

18%

4276-20026 (24302)

Both legs:

No$50.4690.1¢-$1.74

Yes$15.26.6¢+$14.83

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$55.31

Value

$51.11

PnL

-$4.2

Record

39%

1066-1669 (2735)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$108.18

Value

$35.62

PnL

+$23.49

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$31.65

Value

$33.05

PnL

+$1.4

Record

27%

6823-18740 (25563)

anoin123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.44

Value

$32.06

PnL

+$5.61

Record

45%

506-621 (1127)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$21.43

Value

$9.12

PnL

+$39.65

Record

72%

13908-5278 (19186)

123987456<$100

Invested

$9.43

Value

$8.7

PnL

-$0.2

Record

44%

2186-2829 (5015)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.35

Value

$3.29

PnL

+$0.57

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

345h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.