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No
balthazar<$100NoYesYesYesNoYesNoYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
Resolved No. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
9
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$52.17
Smart Money Signal
Yes
5 of 9 top traders (56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares470
Combined PnL-$52.17
No — 44%Yes — 56%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 46% 2748-3287 (6035) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20749-13168 (33917) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 48% 3423-3704 (7127) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 4351-9364 (13715) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.1¢ | $52.17 | — | -$52.17 | 39% 1760-2794 (4554) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 52% 4925-4530 (9455) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 52% 2436-2226 (4662) |
HO Hourglass<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 77% 8843-2624 (11467) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 14918-27049 (41967) |
BI
Bigggggggg<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
2748-3287 (6035)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20749-13168 (33917)
AL
alex20011CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
3423-3704 (7127)
0X
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
4351-9364 (13715)
BI
BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100Invested
$52.17
Value
—
PnL
-$52.17
Record
39%
1760-2794 (4554)
KO
korda77<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
4925-4530 (9455)
ME
merodCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
2436-2226 (4662)
HO
Hourglass<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
77%
8843-2624 (11467)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
14918-27049 (41967)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xd1798ab3...6baee2
Slug
will-the-fed-pausecutcut-in-the-next-three-decisions-julsepoct-20260617191211944