Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 49¢ · $79 held · ends Mar 18, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$79
$8.74
Research grade
NeutralNo at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $41.8 | $40 | -$1.6 | 28% 280-738 (1018) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Yesavg 14.2¢ | $2.85 | $10.69 | +$7.84 | 60% 3239-2178 (5417) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 48.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.5 | -$0.49 | 42% 5192-7113 (12305) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $8.2 | $9.3 | +$1.1 | 61% 20651-13088 (33739) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 43.5¢ | $17.4 | $9.3 | +$1.9 | 35% 14814-26946 (41760) |
Istaroth<$100Invested
$41.8
Value
$40
PnL
-$1.6
Record
28%
280-738 (1018)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$10.69
PnL
+$7.84
Record
60%
3239-2178 (5417)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.5
PnL
-$0.49
Record
42%
5192-7113 (12305)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$8.2
Value
$9.3
PnL
+$1.1
Record
61%
20651-13088 (33739)
Invested
$17.4
Value
$9.3
PnL
+$1.9
Record
35%
14814-26946 (41760)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.