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YesYesNoYes
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100NoYes
2B9SCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the Fed Hike-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
Resolved No. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$0.33
Smart Money Signal
Yes
5 of 7 top traders (71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares20
Combined PnL-$0.33
No2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 71%No — 29%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SI simplemanCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $0.3 | — | -$0.33 | 47% 453-515 (968) |
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 46% 2742-3278 (6020) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 4342-9342 (13684) |
FO forgetfuldoryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | — 2-0 (2) |
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 15238-11765 (27003) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 14901-27010 (41911) |
2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 3782-17081 (20863) |
SI
simplemanCTR<$100Invested
$0.3
Value
—
PnL
-$0.33
Record
47%
453-515 (968)
BI
BiggggggggCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
2742-3278 (6020)
0X
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
4342-9342 (13684)
FO
forgetfuldoryCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
—
2-0 (2)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
15238-11765 (27003)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
14901-27010 (41911)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
3782-17081 (20863)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xcfe130a2...1b1e23
Slug
will-the-fed-hikepausehike-in-the-next-three-decisions-octdecjan