Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2027 meeting?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 93¢ · $58 held · ends Apr 28, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$58.27
-$1.02
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $23.25 | $23.38 | +$0.13 | 45% 1834-2273 (4107) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $20.2 | $20 | -$0.01 | 23% 287-958 (1245) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $12.03 | $11.97 | -$0.06 | — |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.9¢ | $4 | $2.93 | -$1.07 | 36% 15093-27221 (42314) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.