Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting?
9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 83¢ · $690 held · ends Apr 28, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 82%
$690
-$25.15
88.1¢ → 82.5¢
-6% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Likaseent | Noavg 88¢ | $306.11 | $283.5 | -$22.61 | 28% 231-605 (836) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 88¢ | $214.54 | $212.45 | -$0.37 | 17% 402-1972 (2374) |
LP lpgb | Noavg 88¢ | $102.4 | $58.91 | -$0.49 | 25% 181-542 (723) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $34.4 | $32.6 | -$1.8 | 55% 25961-21246 (47207) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90.2¢ | $30.37 | $27.44 | -$2.93 | 57% 17248-12904 (30152) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $17.5 | $24.98 | +$7.48 | 35% 16955-31322 (48277) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $26.4 | $24.45 | -$1.95 | 61% 13866-8714 (22580) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $12.16 | $10.43 | -$1.73 | 51% 218-210 (428) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $9.93 | $8.79 | -$1.13 | 59% 3562-2476 (6038) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $4.35 | $4.07 | -$0.28 | 21% 2284-8698 (10982) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $1.68 | $2.35 | +$0.67 | 42% 5348-7364 (12712) |
Invested
$306.11
Value
$283.5
PnL
-$22.61
Record
28%
231-605 (836)
IstarothInvested
$214.54
Value
$212.45
PnL
-$0.37
Record
17%
402-1972 (2374)
Invested
$102.4
Value
$58.91
PnL
-$0.49
Record
25%
181-542 (723)
balthazar<$100Invested
$34.4
Value
$32.6
PnL
-$1.8
Record
55%
25961-21246 (47207)
Invested
$30.37
Value
$27.44
PnL
-$2.93
Record
57%
17248-12904 (30152)
Invested
$17.5
Value
$24.98
PnL
+$7.48
Record
35%
16955-31322 (48277)
Invested
$26.4
Value
$24.45
PnL
-$1.95
Record
61%
13866-8714 (22580)
Invested
$12.16
Value
$10.43
PnL
-$1.73
Record
51%
218-210 (428)
Invested
$9.93
Value
$8.79
PnL
-$1.13
Record
59%
3562-2476 (6038)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$4.35
Value
$4.07
PnL
-$0.28
Record
21%
2284-8698 (10982)
Invested
$1.68
Value
$2.35
PnL
+$0.67
Record
42%
5348-7364 (12712)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.