Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 2.1¢ · $813 held · ends Dec 9
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$813.48
$-1.8K
6.6¢ → 2.1¢
-68% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Late
238h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettesCTR | Yesavg 11.1¢ | $1.6K | $309.42 | $-1.3K | 56% 18394-14718 (33112) |
 HolyMoses7CTR | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $2.96 | $254.38 | -$312.2 | 54% 1576-1351 (2927) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 98¢ | $180.59 | $180.64 | +$0.05 | 77% 11700-3588 (15288) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 10.9¢ | $167.64 | $33.8 | -$133.84 | 35% 16978-31455 (48433) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $22.51 | $25.2 | +$2.69 | 18% 4067-19070 (23137) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $58.51 | $10.05 | -$101.36 | 28% 5987-15755 (21742) |
Invested
$1,562.75
Value
$309.42
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
56%
18394-14718 (33112)
HolyMoses7CTRInvested
$2.96
Value
$254.38
PnL
-$312.2
Record
54%
1576-1351 (2927)
Invested
$180.59
Value
$180.64
PnL
+$0.05
Record
77%
11700-3588 (15288)
Invested
$167.64
Value
$33.8
PnL
-$133.84
Record
35%
16978-31455 (48433)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$22.51
Value
$25.2
PnL
+$2.69
Record
18%
4067-19070 (23137)
Invested
$58.51
Value
$10.05
PnL
-$101.36
Record
28%
5987-15755 (21742)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.