Will the ECB increase the deposit facility rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 55¢ · $177 held · ends Mar 18, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$177.36
-$3.32
57¢ → 55¢
-3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 57.3¢ | $82.6 | $80.68 | -$1.92 | 50% 23-23 (46) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $57 | $56 | -$1 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $11 | $11.2 | +$0.2 | 27% 499-1317 (1816) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $12 | $11.2 | -$0.8 | 12% 18-127 (145) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $10.8 | $11 | +$0.2 | 25% 842-2482 (3324) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $7.27 | $7.27 | -$0 | 27% 499-1348 (1847) |
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$82.6
Value
$80.68
PnL
-$1.92
Record
50%
23-23 (46)
Invested
$57
Value
$56
PnL
-$1
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
Invested
$11
Value
$11.2
PnL
+$0.2
Record
27%
499-1317 (1816)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$12
Value
$11.2
PnL
-$0.8
Record
12%
18-127 (145)
Invested
$10.8
Value
$11
PnL
+$0.2
Record
25%
842-2482 (3324)
Invested
$7.27
Value
$7.27
PnL
-$0
Record
27%
499-1348 (1847)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.