Will the ECB increase the deposit facility rate by 25 bps at the February meeting?

20 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (95%) · No at 86¢ · $2K held · ends Feb 4, 2027

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Thu, Feb 4, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 95%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$100.87

Smart Money Entry

88.3¢ → 86¢

-3% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 21 top traders (95%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No20 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,932

Combined PnL-$100.93

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.56

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.06

No — 95%Yes — 5%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 30%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

95% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 30% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 95% · 21

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 88.5¢	$274.2	$257.3	-$16.9	50% 4577-4487 (9064)
AL alex20011	Noavg 88.4¢	$247.54	$232.36	-$15.18	44% 1081-1380 (2461)
AN anothercoin	Noavg 89.2¢	$239.44	$222.79	-$16.65	38% 1236-1990 (3226)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 87.9¢	$193.4	$182.6	-$10.8	53% 5511-4919 (10430)
Haradwaith	Noavg 88¢	$122.09	$112.88	-$6.6	50% 22-22 (44)
KL klli27	Noavg 89¢	$106.59	$99.4	-$7.19	27% 499-1348 (1847)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 86.8¢	$69.24	$66.24	-$2.99	37% 3085-5357 (8442)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 89¢	$63.42	$59.15	-$4.28	28% 522-1370 (1892)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 89¢	$55.49	$51.75	-$3.74	27% 499-1317 (1816)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 89¢	$55.49	$51.75	-$3.74	28% 521-1360 (1881)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 89.5¢	$40.8	$37.69	-$3.11	12% 17-121 (138)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 86¢	$35.27	$34.03	-$1.24	79% 286-77 (363)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 87¢	$34.8	$33.2	-$1.6	30% 2617-6186 (8803)
LI Likaseent<$100	Noavg 88¢	$28.13	$26.54	-$1.6	26% 361-1008 (1369)
VA Vale54holi<$100	Noavg 88¢	$28.13	$26.54	-$1.6	28% 368-936 (1304)
ZE zerone777<$100	Noavg 88¢	$28.13	$26.54	-$1.6	30% 513-1183 (1696)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 85¢	$25.5	$24.9	-$0.6	27% 912-2510 (3422)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 87¢	$26.1	$24.9	-$1.2	40% 1429-2156 (3585)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 89¢	$26.7	$24.9	-$1.8	— 2-14 (16)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 85.4¢	$47.48	$12.96	+$1.48	66% 4086-2106 (6192)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$0.5	$0.56	+$0.06	41% 3084-4451 (7535)

balthazar

Invested

$274.2

Value

$257.3

PnL

-$16.9

Record

50%

4577-4487 (9064)

alex20011

Invested

$247.54

Value

$232.36

PnL

-$15.18

Record

44%

1081-1380 (2461)

anothercoin

Invested

$239.44

Value

$222.79

PnL

-$16.65

Record

38%

1236-1990 (3226)

cigarettes

Invested

$193.4

Value

$182.6

PnL

-$10.8

Record

53%

5511-4919 (10430)

Haradwaith

Invested

$122.09

Value

$112.88

PnL

-$6.6

Record

50%

22-22 (44)

klli27

Invested

$106.59

Value

$99.4

PnL

-$7.19

Record

27%

499-1348 (1847)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$69.24

Value

$66.24

PnL

-$2.99

Record

37%

3085-5357 (8442)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$63.42

Value

$59.15

PnL

-$4.28

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$55.49

Value

$51.75

PnL

-$3.74

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

akroll<$100

Invested

$55.49

Value

$51.75

PnL

-$3.74

Record

28%

521-1360 (1881)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$40.8

Value

$37.69

PnL

-$3.11

Record

12%

17-121 (138)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$35.27

Value

$34.03

PnL

-$1.24

Record

79%

286-77 (363)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$34.8

Value

$33.2

PnL

-$1.6

Record

30%

2617-6186 (8803)

Likaseent<$100

Invested

$28.13

Value

$26.54

PnL

-$1.6

Record

26%

361-1008 (1369)

Vale54holi<$100

Invested

$28.13

Value

$26.54

PnL

-$1.6

Record

28%

368-936 (1304)

zerone777<$100

Invested

$28.13

Value

$26.54

PnL

-$1.6

Record

30%

513-1183 (1696)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$25.5

Value

$24.9

PnL

-$0.6

Record

27%

912-2510 (3422)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$26.1

Value

$24.9

PnL

-$1.2

Record

40%

1429-2156 (3585)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$26.7

Value

$24.9

PnL

-$1.8

Record

—

2-14 (16)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$47.48

Value

$12.96

PnL

+$1.48

Record

66%

4086-2106 (6192)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.56

PnL

+$0.06

Record

41%

3084-4451 (7535)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 21 top traders (95%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 30%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

95% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 30% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 95% · 21

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.