Will the ECB announce no change at the December 2026 meeting?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 86¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 17

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Thu, Dec 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$129.81

Smart Money Entry

79.9¢ → 85.5¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$887.05

Total Shares994

Combined PnL+$108.38

Yes5 traders

Total Value$219.5

Total Shares1,514

Combined PnL+$21.43

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

330h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 75.6¢	$1.3K	$461.42	+$37.62	34% 19350-36905 (56255)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 86¢	$275.47	$273.87	-$1.6	53% 23766-20936 (44702)
19 196874353278CTR	Yesavg 15.3¢	$178.05	$168.22	+$3.25	40% 342-508 (850)
Haradwaith	Noavg 87.4¢	$130.74	$117.56	-$3.39	40% 6551-9831 (16382)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.4¢	$48.39	$44.27	+$20.38	45% 2995-3689 (6684)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 58.6¢	$91.31	$34.2	+$75.75	43% 10631-14092 (24723)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.7¢	$2.71	$4.5	-$1.55	28% 2851-7323 (10174)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.7¢	$1.69	$1.38	-$0.24	51% 313-301 (614)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.8¢	$1.56	$1.14	-$0.41	53% 8597-7672 (16269)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$1,288.15

Value

$461.42

PnL

+$37.62

Record

34%

19350-36905 (56255)

cigarettes

Invested

$275.47

Value

$273.87

PnL

-$1.6

Record

53%

23766-20936 (44702)

196874353278CTR

Yes

Invested

$178.05

Value

$168.22

PnL

+$3.25

Record

40%

342-508 (850)

Haradwaith

Invested

$130.74

Value

$117.56

PnL

-$3.39

Record

40%

6551-9831 (16382)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.39

Value

$44.27

PnL

+$20.38

Record

45%

2995-3689 (6684)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$91.31

Value

$34.2

PnL

+$75.75

Record

43%

10631-14092 (24723)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.71

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$1.55

Record

28%

2851-7323 (10174)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.69

Value

$1.38

PnL

-$0.24

Record

51%

313-301 (614)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.56

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$0.41

Record

53%

8597-7672 (16269)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

330h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.