Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (42%) · Yes at 88¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 17

Yes88¢No12¢Ends Thu, Dec 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 42%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$131.54

Smart Money Entry

82.3¢ → 87.5¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes88%

No13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$987.88

Total Shares1,106

Combined PnL+$29.68

No7 traders

Total Value$129.83

Total Shares1,040

Combined PnL-$161.23

Yes — 42%No — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

293h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AG aghy	Yesavg 86.5¢	$453.18	$458.68	+$8.68	— 5-11 (16)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 30¢	$699.08	$373.74	-$47.7	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 63¢	$201.74	$280.21	+$69.6
└ No leg	Noavg 30¢	$224.48	$93.53	-$117.3
StarMaster	Yesavg 80.4¢	$335.27	$350	+$14.73	53% 1906-1683 (3589)
Istaroth	Yesavg 77.8¢	$159.91	$158.49	-$0.28	14% 461-2750 (3211)
GA GaditimaARB<$100	Yesavg 75.7¢	$160.35	$157.5	-$2.85	48% 7100-7802 (14902)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 75.7¢	$98.43	$113.75	+$15.32
└ No leg	Noavg 17.7¢	$61.91	$43.75	-$18.16
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938ARB<$100	Yesavg 82.7¢	$249.47	$108.18	+$6.55	45% 2819-3389 (6208)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 82.7¢	$66.56	$70.43	+$11.14
└ No leg	Noavg 14¢	$42.34	$37.75	-$4.59
GO god83743894CTR	Noavg 34.7¢	$252.46	$90.98	-$161.48	46% 10307-11997 (22304)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 11.3¢	$17.56	$19.5	+$1.94	28% 479-1254 (1733)
SN SnapElectionAvoider<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$10.2	$17.5	+$7.3	50% 1278-1291 (2569)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Noavg 11.1¢	$5.55	$6.25	+$0.7	72% 13948-5333 (19281)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 12.3¢	$4.43	$4.5	+$0.08	32% 2511-5383 (7894)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$15.68	$3.75	-$2.32	18% 340-1570 (1910)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$3.3	$3.6	+$0.3	42% 7010-9803 (16813)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 63.7¢	$30.49	$3.21	-$0.74	77% 12289-3775 (16064)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$1.7	$1.25	-$0.45	49% 8836-9340 (18176)

aghy

Yes

Invested

$453.18

Value

$458.68

PnL

+$8.68

Record

—

5-11 (16)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$699.08

Value

$373.74

PnL

-$47.7

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

Both legs:

Invested

$335.27

Value

$350

PnL

+$14.73

Record

53%

1906-1683 (3589)

Istaroth

Yes

Invested

$159.91

Value

$158.49

PnL

-$0.28

Record

14%

461-2750 (3211)

GaditimaARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$160.35

Value

$157.5

PnL

-$2.85

Record

48%

7100-7802 (14902)

Both legs:

Yes$98.4375.7¢+$15.32

No$61.9117.7¢-$18.16

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$249.47

Value

$108.18

PnL

+$6.55

Record

45%

2819-3389 (6208)

Both legs:

Yes$66.5682.7¢+$11.14

No$42.3414¢-$4.59

god83743894CTR

Invested

$252.46

Value

$90.98

PnL

-$161.48

Record

46%

10307-11997 (22304)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$17.56

Value

$19.5

PnL

+$1.94

Record

28%

479-1254 (1733)

SnapElectionAvoider<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.2

Value

$17.5

PnL

+$7.3

Record

50%

1278-1291 (2569)

e46m3CTR<$100

Invested

$5.55

Value

$6.25

PnL

+$0.7

Record

72%

13948-5333 (19281)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$4.43

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0.08

Record

32%

2511-5383 (7894)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$15.68

Value

$3.75

PnL

-$2.32

Record

18%

340-1570 (1910)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$0.3

Record

42%

7010-9803 (16813)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.49

Value

$3.21

PnL

-$0.74

Record

77%

12289-3775 (16064)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$0.45

Record

49%

8836-9340 (18176)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

293h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.