Will the Democrats win Wisconsin in the 2028 Presidential Election?

2 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 67¢ · $611 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes67¢No33¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 17%

Total Value

$610.67

Combined PnL

-$58.46

Smart Money Entry

58.5¢ → 67¢

+15% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes67%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$516.39

Total Shares1,041

Combined PnL-$83.39

No10 traders

Total Value$94.27

Total Shares234

Combined PnL+$24.93

Yes — 17%No — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR Crock95	Yesavg 58.4¢	$588.85	$484.34	-$104.5	—
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Yesavg 61.9¢	$49.61	$32.04	+$21.11	27% 109-299 (408)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 47.6¢	$74.47	$26	+$2.35	38% 3874-6342 (10216)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 31.8¢	$25.74	$24.71	-$1.04	14% 110-653 (763)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$12.8	$20.8	+$8	53% 7602-6693 (14295)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$3.78	$6.78	+$3	50% 975-969 (1944)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$5.84	$5.93	+$0.1	26% 381-1105 (1486)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$3.8	$4	+$0.2	48% 1294-1427 (2721)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$1.48	$1.55	+$0.08	52% 994-930 (1924)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$1.46	$1.53	+$0.08	56% 888-693 (1581)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$5.2	$1.51	+$12.09	29% 348-840 (1188)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$1.39	$1.46	+$0.07	50% 910-924 (1834)

Crock95

Yes

Invested

$588.85

Value

$484.34

PnL

-$104.5

Record

—

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.61

Value

$32.04

PnL

+$21.11

Record

27%

109-299 (408)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$74.47

Value

$26

PnL

+$2.35

Record

38%

3874-6342 (10216)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$25.74

Value

$24.71

PnL

-$1.04

Record

14%

110-653 (763)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$12.8

Value

$20.8

PnL

+$8

Record

53%

7602-6693 (14295)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$3.78

Value

$6.78

PnL

+$3

Record

50%

975-969 (1944)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Invested

$5.84

Value

$5.93

PnL

+$0.1

Record

26%

381-1105 (1486)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$3.8

Value

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

1294-1427 (2721)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$1.48

Value

$1.55

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

994-930 (1924)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$1.46

Value

$1.53

PnL

+$0.08

Record

56%

888-693 (1581)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

$5.2

Value

$1.51

PnL

+$12.09

Record

29%

348-840 (1188)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$1.39

Value

$1.46

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

910-924 (1834)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.9%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.