Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 2 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democrats win the Kentucky governor race in 2027?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (22%) · Yes at 37¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 3, 2027

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Wed, Nov 3, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 22%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$784.92

Smart Money Entry

26.5¢ → 36.5¢

+38% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares6,782

Combined PnL+$573.64

No7 traders

Total Value$748.51

Total Shares1,017

Combined PnL+$211.28

Yes — 22%No — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
bernardbulletinCTR	Yesavg 26.1¢	$1.7K	$2.4K	+$690.56	70% 379-160 (539)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Noavg 56¢	$377.16	$518.6	+$141.43	9% 14-144 (158)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 65¢	$187.77	$71.94	+$35.15	39% 3638-5770 (9408)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 77¢	$50.52	$50.52	+$0	31% 165-364 (529)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 63¢	$56.01	$50.5	+$4.02	43% 1123-1475 (2598)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR	Yesavg 44¢	$651.87	$34.95	-$116.92	25% 95-290 (385)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 63¢	$25.2	$25.6	+$0.4	53% 7043-6178 (13221)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 62¢	$24.18	$24.96	+$0.78	52% 1638-1541 (3179)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 63¢	$97.65	$6.4	+$29.5	29% 1104-2668 (3772)

bernardbulletinCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,729.48

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$690.56

Record

70%

379-160 (539)

TheWindKnowsmyName

Invested

$377.16

Value

$518.6

PnL

+$141.43

Record

14-144 (158)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$187.77

Value

$71.94

PnL

+$35.15

Record

39%

3638-5770 (9408)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$50.52

Value

$50.52

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

165-364 (529)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$56.01

Value

$50.5

PnL

+$4.02

Record

43%

1123-1475 (2598)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR

Yes

Invested

$651.87

Value

$34.95

PnL

-$116.92

Record

25%

95-290 (385)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$25.2

Value

$25.6

PnL

+$0.4

Record

53%

7043-6178 (13221)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$24.18

Value

$24.96

PnL

+$0.78

Record

52%

1638-1541 (3179)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$97.65

Value

$6.4

PnL

+$29.5

Record

29%

1104-2668 (3772)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.4%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$160.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

260.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.