Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (84%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democrats win the Arizona Secretary of State race in 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 17¢ · $485 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 80%
1 arb excluded
$485.42
$8.55
17.9¢ → 16.5¢
-8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 84%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 83.9¢ | $342.27 | $336.62 | -$5.3 | 26% 281-787 (1068) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 83.9¢ | $269.9 | $260.62 | -$9.3 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 18¢ | $72 | $76 | +$4 | |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 19¢ | $138.76 | $87.42 | +$1.59 | 36% 14865-26983 (41848) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Noavg 16.7¢ | $28.56 | $32.49 | +$3.93 | 52% 4918-4516 (9434) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Noavg 16¢ | $9.76 | $11.59 | +$1.83 | 52% 2427-2216 (4643) |
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836<$100 | Yesavg 81¢ | $9.72 | $9.72 | +$0 | 61% 203-131 (334) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Noavg 16¢ | $6.38 | $7.58 | +$1.2 | 42% 135-186 (321) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$342.27
Value
$336.62
PnL
-$5.3
Record
26%
281-787 (1068)
Both legs:
Invested
$138.76
Value
$87.42
PnL
+$1.59
Record
36%
14865-26983 (41848)
Invested
$28.56
Value
$32.49
PnL
+$3.93
Record
52%
4918-4516 (9434)
Invested
$9.76
Value
$11.59
PnL
+$1.83
Record
52%
2427-2216 (4643)
Invested
$9.72
Value
$9.72
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
203-131 (334)
Invested
$6.38
Value
$7.58
PnL
+$1.2
Record
42%
135-186 (321)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
16.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.