Will the Democrats win Sedgwick County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 59¢ · $618 held · ends Nov 3

Yes59¢No41¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$617.88

Combined PnL

-$7.03

Smart Money Entry

58.5¢ → 59¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$567.02

Total Shares961

Combined PnL+$4.51

No3 traders

Total Value$50.86

Total Shares124

Combined PnL-$11.54

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 58.7¢	$1.1K	$337.58	+$1.99	45% 2388-2952 (5340)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 60.9¢	$733.73	$154.75	-$5.07	35% 17266-31860 (49126)
SH shiifoo	Yesavg 53¢	$126.59	$74.69	+$7.6	59% 3592-2491 (6083)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Noavg 51.6¢	$108	$44.28	-$11.42	27% 6127-16206 (22333)
E4 e46m3CTR	Noavg 41.7¢	$242.07	$6.11	-$0.1	72% 12503-4935 (17438)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 42.8¢	$0.5	$0.48	-$0.02	43% 1264-1656 (2920)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$1,088.53

Value

$337.58

PnL

+$1.99

Record

45%

2388-2952 (5340)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$733.73

Value

$154.75

PnL

-$5.07

Record

35%

17266-31860 (49126)

shiifoo

Yes

Invested

$126.59

Value

$74.69

PnL

+$7.6

Record

59%

3592-2491 (6083)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Invested

$108

Value

$44.28

PnL

-$11.42

Record

27%

6127-16206 (22333)

e46m3CTR

Invested

$242.07

Value

$6.11

PnL

-$0.1

Record

72%

12503-4935 (17438)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$0.02

Record

43%

1264-1656 (2920)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.0%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.