Will the Democrats win Ohio in the 2028 Presidential Election?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 67¢ · $577 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$576.67

Combined PnL

$18.01

Smart Money Entry

62.9¢ → 66.5¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$428.08

Total Shares648

Combined PnL+$20.18

Yes1 trader

Total Value$79.01

Total Shares236

Combined PnL-$2.17

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 62.4¢	$276.53	$292.27	+$15.74	53% 5821-5182 (11003)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 34.4¢	$81.18	$79.01	-$2.17	24% 82-266 (348)
WA WarriorHARB<$100	Noavg 66.7¢	$71.51	$69.58	-$1.93	5% 2-36 (38)
└ No leg	Noavg 66.7¢	$47.37	$46.86	-$0.51
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34¢	$24.14	$22.72	-$1.42
LI Likaseent<$100	Noavg 64¢	$60.8	$62.7	+$1.9	26% 361-1008 (1369)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 63.3¢	$57.38	$59.81	+$2.44	41% 3164-4511 (7675)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 66¢	$13.2	$13.3	+$0.1	13% 28-182 (210)

cigarettes

Invested

$276.53

Value

$292.27

PnL

+$15.74

Record

53%

5821-5182 (11003)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.18

Value

$79.01

PnL

-$2.17

Record

24%

82-266 (348)

WarriorHARB<$100

Invested

$71.51

Value

$69.58

PnL

-$1.93

Record

2-36 (38)

Both legs:

No$47.3766.7¢-$0.51

Yes$24.1434¢-$1.42

Likaseent<$100

Invested

$60.8

Value

$62.7

PnL

+$1.9

Record

26%

361-1008 (1369)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$57.38

Value

$59.81

PnL

+$2.44

Record

41%

3164-4511 (7675)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$13.2

Value

$13.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

13%

28-182 (210)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.4%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.