Will the Democrats win North Carolina in the 2028 Presidential Election?

2 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (15%) · Yes at 68¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes68¢No32¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 15%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$242.94

Smart Money Entry

57.7¢ → 67.5¢

+17% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 13 top traders (15%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,154

Combined PnL+$275.11

No11 traders

Total Value$338.05

Total Shares1,052

Combined PnL-$32.18

Yes — 15%No — 85%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

15% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR Crock95	Yesavg 57.6¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$257.78	—
HaradwaithCTR	Noavg 40¢	$223.2	$177.64	-$45.56	29% 308-740 (1048)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 62.8¢	$137.03	$70.83	+$17.33	38% 3804-6225 (10029)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 28.8¢	$59.63	$67.29	+$7.67	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$26.07	$30.26	+$4.19	51% 945-892 (1837)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$20.4	$21.39	+$0.99	14% 103-624 (727)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 30.6¢	$10.5	$11.17	+$0.67	58% 864-619 (1483)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$9.89	$7.49	-$2.39	15% 29-161 (190)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 28.8¢	$6.59	$7.44	+$0.85	52% 909-844 (1753)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 29.4¢	$4.77	$5.28	+$0.51	47% 887-1007 (1894)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$3.96	$4.29	+$0.33	57% 836-638 (1474)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 29.3¢	$3.74	$4.15	+$0.4	50% 919-925 (1844)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$1.46	$1.64	+$0.18	49% 854-884 (1738)

Crock95

Yes

Invested

$1,761.28

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$257.78

Record

—

HaradwaithCTR

Invested

$223.2

Value

$177.64

PnL

-$45.56

Record

29%

308-740 (1048)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$137.03

Value

$70.83

PnL

+$17.33

Record

38%

3804-6225 (10029)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$59.63

Value

$67.29

PnL

+$7.67

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$26.07

Value

$30.26

PnL

+$4.19

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$20.4

Value

$21.39

PnL

+$0.99

Record

14%

103-624 (727)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$10.5

Value

$11.17

PnL

+$0.67

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$9.89

Value

$7.49

PnL

-$2.39

Record

15%

29-161 (190)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$6.59

Value

$7.44

PnL

+$0.85

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$4.77

Value

$5.28

PnL

+$0.51

Record

47%

887-1007 (1894)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$3.96

Value

$4.29

PnL

+$0.33

Record

57%

836-638 (1474)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$3.74

Value

$4.15

PnL

+$0.4

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$1.46

Value

$1.64

PnL

+$0.18

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 13 top traders (15%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

15% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.4%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.