Will the Democrats win Maricopa County in the Arizona governor race in 2026?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 96¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3

Yes96¢No4¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$200.35

Smart Money Entry

89¢ → 96¢

+8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares4,185

Combined PnL+$199.43

No1 trader

Total Value$1.47

Total Shares37

Combined PnL+$0.92

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
mrworldwide	Yesavg 90.6¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$82.87	69% 799-359 (1158)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754	Yesavg 84.7¢	$896.92	$989.63	+$92.71	— 2-1 (3)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 87¢	$23	$215.03	+$23.84	39% 9-14 (23)
NadmiCTR<$100	Noavg 4¢	$0.55	$1.47	+$0.92	47% 2029-2245 (4274)

mrworldwide

Yes

Invested

$2,635.45

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$82.87

Record

69%

799-359 (1158)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754

Yes

Invested

$896.92

Value

$989.63

PnL

+$92.71

Record

—

2-1 (3)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$23

Value

$215.03

PnL

+$23.84

Record

39%

9-14 (23)

NadmiCTR<$100

Invested

$0.55

Value

$1.47

PnL

+$0.92

Record

47%

2029-2245 (4274)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.