Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (61%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democrats win Denton County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 40¢ · $365 held · ends Nov 3

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$364.9

Combined PnL

$78.41

Smart Money Entry

45.1¢ → 39.5¢

-13% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$207.23

Total Shares367

Combined PnL+$81.51

Yes3 traders

Total Value$157.67

Total Shares364

Combined PnL-$3.11

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GollumGekko	Noavg 31¢	$88.23	$160.58	+$79.45	69% 2060-935 (2995)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 46.2¢	$197.17	$147.92	-$5.7	35% 14744-26906 (41650)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 54¢	$44.59	$46.65	+$2.06	61% 20619-13064 (33683)
bernardbulletinCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$5.2	$8.3	+$3.1	69% 973-443 (1416)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$1.96	$1.45	-$0.51	72% 131-52 (183)

GollumGekko

Invested

$88.23

Value

$160.58

PnL

+$79.45

Record

69%

2060-935 (2995)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$197.17

Value

$147.92

PnL

-$5.7

Record

35%

14744-26906 (41650)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$44.59

Value

$46.65

PnL

+$2.06

Record

61%

20619-13064 (33683)

bernardbulletinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.2

Value

$8.3

PnL

+$3.1

Record

69%

973-443 (1416)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.96

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$0.51

Record

72%

131-52 (183)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.5%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$141.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

241.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.