Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (86%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democrats win Connecticut in the 2028 Presidential Election?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 14¢ · $62 held · ends Nov 8, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 75%
$61.98
-$1.22
Research grade
AvoidNo at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 86%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 13.5¢ | $30.41 | $31.46 | +$1.04 | 40% 3217-4824 (8041) |
 0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802<$100 | Yesavg 69¢ | $13.8 | $17.4 | +$3.6 | — 1-0 (1) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 20¢ | $13.95 | $9.76 | -$4.18 | 12% 6-43 (49) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Noavg 21¢ | $5.04 | $3.36 | -$1.68 | 2% 1-59 (60) |
Invested
$30.41
Value
$31.46
PnL
+$1.04
Record
40%
3217-4824 (8041)
0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802<$100Invested
$13.8
Value
$17.4
PnL
+$3.6
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$13.95
Value
$9.76
PnL
-$4.18
Record
12%
6-43 (49)
Invested
$5.04
Value
$3.36
PnL
-$1.68
Record
2%
1-59 (60)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.