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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will The Democrats win 7-8% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?

Resolved No. 46% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Yes 75%

Total Value

$1.02

Combined PnL

-$204.26

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 13 top traders (46%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares606

Combined PnL-$204.55

No7 traders

Total Value$1.02

Total Shares1

Combined PnL+$0.29

Yes — 46%No — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.8¢	$5.2	—	-$5.08	18% 4116-19342 (23458)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 68¢	$0.73	$1.02	+$0.29	17% 1059-5142 (6201)
thanksforplayinCTR	Yesavg 35.6¢	$197.93	—	-$197.93	54% 377-319 (696)
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$1.7	—	-$1.53	40% 118-177 (295)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 89.3¢	—	—	+$0	54% 26686-22406 (49092)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 48¢	—	—	+$0	79% 11645-3073 (14718)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 25.5¢	—	—	+$0	35% 17396-32076 (49472)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 56¢	—	—	+$0	54% 21895-19024 (40919)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 56¢	—	—	+$0	62% 13205-8189 (21394)
ME melonmanmCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	—	—	+$0	65% 562-298 (860)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100	Noavg 48¢	—	—	+$0	53% 6380-5635 (12015)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 78¢	—	—	+$0	37% 202-350 (552)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	—	—	+$0	16% 426-2258 (2684)

Invested

$5.2

Value

—

PnL

-$5.08

Record

18%

4116-19342 (23458)

Invested

$0.73

Value

$1.02

PnL

+$0.29

Record

17%

1059-5142 (6201)

thanksforplayinCTR

Invested

$197.93

Value

—

PnL

-$197.93

Record

54%

377-319 (696)

0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100

Invested

$1.7

Value

—

PnL

-$1.53

Record

40%

118-177 (295)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

26686-22406 (49092)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

79%

11645-3073 (14718)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

17396-32076 (49472)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

21895-19024 (40919)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

13205-8189 (21394)

melonmanmCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

65%

562-298 (860)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

6380-5635 (12015)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

202-350 (552)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

16%

426-2258 (2684)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 13 top traders (46%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x29befc0e...4c7f63

Slug

will-the-democrats-win-7-8-percent-of-the-vote-in-the-2026-knesset-elections

Traders in this Market

2B9S

Yes — $0

WarriorH

No — $1.02

thanksforplayin

Yes — $0

0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50AB

Yes — $0

balthazar

No — $0

Lucerys

No — $0

xtxpleasecallme

Yes — $0

cigarettes

No — $0

graynotebook19

No — $0

melonmanm

Yes — $0

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