Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 35¢ · $878 held · ends Jun 30, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$878.48
-$37.9
55.1¢ → 34.5¢
-37% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 55.5¢ | $583.34 | $532.78 | -$39.11 | 35% 14791-26919 (41710) |
 vinii | Noavg 47.1¢ | $307.99 | $269.86 | +$19.25 | 74% 2703-970 (3673) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 53.3¢ | $89.2 | $63.3 | -$17.67 | 28% 280-709 (989) |
KI KiruaTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $10.4 | $9.9 | -$0.5 | 56% 255-197 (452) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $2.52 | $2.65 | +$0.13 | 57% 13017-9926 (22943) |
Invested
$583.34
Value
$532.78
PnL
-$39.11
Record
35%
14791-26919 (41710)
viniiInvested
$307.99
Value
$269.86
PnL
+$19.25
Record
74%
2703-970 (3673)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$89.2
Value
$63.3
PnL
-$17.67
Record
28%
280-709 (989)
Invested
$10.4
Value
$9.9
PnL
-$0.5
Record
56%
255-197 (452)
Invested
$2.52
Value
$2.65
PnL
+$0.13
Record
57%
13017-9926 (22943)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.