Will the Democratic Party win the TX-35 House seat?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 66¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$2.0K
$285.27
59.5¢ → 66¢
+11% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO Contestable-Parfait | Yesavg 65.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$69.36 | 41% 11-16 (27) |
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Yesavg 50.3¢ | $572.16 | $790.47 | +$218.31 | 61% 203-131 (334) |
BA badatthisCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $43.2 | $40.8 | -$2.4 | 65% 2218-1179 (3397) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.