Will the Democratic Party win the TX-22 House seat?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 97¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 4

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

-$28.64

Smart Money Entry

94.9¢ → 96.8¢

+2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares6,470

Combined PnL+$91.36

Yes1 trader

Total Value$280

Total Shares5,000

Combined PnL-$120

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

507h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI SitsToPee	Noavg 95¢	$19.95	$5.7K	+$84.96	59% 382-268 (650)
ChungvicularCTR	Yesavg 5¢	$250	$280	-$120	47% 52-59 (111)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 89.4¢	$86.07	$90.9	+$4.83	73% 13591-5101 (18692)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$76.68	$75.44	-$1.24	53% 28804-25713 (54517)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 89.8¢	$57.99	$60.95	+$2.97	51% 3540-3430 (6970)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$51.9	$51.93	+$0.03	30% 2222-5090 (7312)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$35.24	$35.14	-$0.1	35% 17800-33165 (50965)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Noavg 94.9¢	$34.07	$34.01	+$1.28	45% 2525-3059 (5584)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$65.82	$29.05	-$1.37	26% 353-995 (1348)

SitsToPee

Invested

$19.95

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$84.96

Record

59%

382-268 (650)

ChungvicularCTR

Yes

Invested

$250

Value

$280

PnL

-$120

Record

47%

52-59 (111)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$86.07

Value

$90.9

PnL

+$4.83

Record

73%

13591-5101 (18692)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$76.68

Value

$75.44

PnL

-$1.24

Record

53%

28804-25713 (54517)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$57.99

Value

$60.95

PnL

+$2.97

Record

51%

3540-3430 (6970)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$51.9

Value

$51.93

PnL

+$0.03

Record

30%

2222-5090 (7312)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$35.24

Value

$35.14

PnL

-$0.1

Record

35%

17800-33165 (50965)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Invested

$34.07

Value

$34.01

PnL

+$1.28

Record

45%

2525-3059 (5584)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$65.82

Value

$29.05

PnL

-$1.37

Record

26%

353-995 (1348)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

507h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.8%

96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.