Will the Democratic Party win the TX-05 House seat?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 87¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$14.22

Smart Money Entry

84.5¢ → 87.2¢

+3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$536.73

Total Shares564

Combined PnL+$33.69

Yes4 traders

Total Value$181.87

Total Shares1,471

Combined PnL-$47.91

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938ARB<$100	Noavg 88.3¢	$262.93	$432.51	+$261.71	45% 2406-2980 (5386)
└ No leg	Noavg 88.3¢	$228.52	$225.79	+$229.99
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 11.4¢	$184.36	$206.72	+$31.72
HO HotDogs	Noavg 84¢	$252	$290.1	+$34.35	94% 443-28 (471)
GA GaditimaCTR	Yesavg 16.6¢	$150.16	$115.45	-$34.71	48% 6904-7549 (14453)
LP lpgb	Noavg 81¢	$99.96	$100	+$0.04	25% 316-961 (1277)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 90.6¢	$77.9	$78.45	+$0.55	35% 17595-32915 (50510)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.1¢	$74.21	$52.34	-$19.17	56% 171-134 (305)
SI SitsToPee<$100	No	$22.62	$22.62	-$0.59	61% 289-185 (474)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 81.8¢	$18.45	$17.23	-$1.22	50% 9510-9518 (19028)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 88.3¢	$13.42	$13.2	-$0.22	47% 1605-1792 (3397)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 83¢	$8.47	$8.87	+$0.4	47% 2049-2324 (4373)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.4¢	$5.4	$8.8	+$3.4	54% 22050-19158 (41208)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$2.71	$5.28	+$2.57	50% 1696-1690 (3386)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 82.6¢	$4.2	$4.33	+$0.13	40% 1035-1521 (2556)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 84.2¢	$1.68	$1.93	+$0.25	39% 5330-8353 (13683)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938ARB<$100

Invested

$262.93

Value

$432.51

PnL

+$261.71

Record

45%

2406-2980 (5386)

Both legs:

No$228.5288.3¢+$229.99

Yes$184.3611.4¢+$31.72

HotDogs

Invested

$252

Value

$290.1

PnL

+$34.35

Record

94%

443-28 (471)

GaditimaCTR

Yes

Invested

$150.16

Value

$115.45

PnL

-$34.71

Record

48%

6904-7549 (14453)

lpgb

Invested

$99.96

Value

$100

PnL

+$0.04

Record

25%

316-961 (1277)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$77.9

Value

$78.45

PnL

+$0.55

Record

35%

17595-32915 (50510)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.21

Value

$52.34

PnL

-$19.17

Record

56%

171-134 (305)

SitsToPee<$100

Invested

$22.62

Value

$22.62

PnL

-$0.59

Record

61%

289-185 (474)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$18.45

Value

$17.23

PnL

-$1.22

Record

50%

9510-9518 (19028)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$13.42

Value

$13.2

PnL

-$0.22

Record

47%

1605-1792 (3397)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$8.47

Value

$8.87

PnL

+$0.4

Record

47%

2049-2324 (4373)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.4

Value

$8.8

PnL

+$3.4

Record

54%

22050-19158 (41208)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.71

Value

$5.28

PnL

+$2.57

Record

50%

1696-1690 (3386)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.33

PnL

+$0.13

Record

40%

1035-1521 (2556)

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$1.68

Value

$1.93

PnL

+$0.25

Record

39%

5330-8353 (13683)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.6%

87.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.