Will the Democratic Party win the TN-09 House seat?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 78¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 4

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$595.14

Smart Money Entry

78.7¢ → 77.5¢

-2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares5,118

Combined PnL+$357.73

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares7,180

Combined PnL+$237.41

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

685h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima	Noavg 84¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$61.42	48% 6897-7543 (14440)
RA RailcoolCTR	Yesavg 18¢	$940.35	$1.2K	+$232.75	52% 87-81 (168)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 81.8¢	$452.02	$833.31	+$194.42	45% 2406-2980 (5386)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 74.9¢	$824.7	$624.27	+$25.84	35% 17563-32834 (50397)
LI lissartter	Noavg 83¢	$415	$390	-$10	42% 5384-7432 (12816)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 14.6¢	$196.98	$296.51	+$106.27	40% 706-1071 (1777)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 78.9¢	$613.53	$290.61	-$2.86	16% 427-2305 (2732)
└ No leg	Noavg 78.9¢	$229.23	$226.67	-$93.41
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 21.5¢	$62.55	$63.94	+$90.55
PE peepeepooppoop	Noavg 73.2¢	$330.37	$218.75	+$13.19	51% 2129-2037 (4166)
CO cowcat	Noavg 11.9¢	$17.5	$132.6	+$115.1	53% 1588-1422 (3010)
LP lpgb	Noavg 78.5¢	$281.17	$115.39	-$5.09	24% 302-944 (1246)
SI SitsToPeeCTR	Yesavg 93¢	$79.33	$102.66	+$23.33	61% 289-185 (474)
E4 e46m3	Noavg 78.7¢	$671.42	$35.11	+$85.72	73% 13376-5006 (18382)
HyperlongCTR	Yes	$330.72	$33.4	-$124.94	43% 235-315 (550)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 78¢	$24.96	$24.8	-$0.16	30% 2095-4887 (6982)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 77¢	$33.98	$14.83	+$0.13	52% 6119-5645 (11764)

Gaditima

Invested

$1,700.9

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$61.42

Record

48%

6897-7543 (14440)

RailcoolCTR

Yes

Invested

$940.35

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$232.75

Record

52%

87-81 (168)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$452.02

Value

$833.31

PnL

+$194.42

Record

45%

2406-2980 (5386)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$824.7

Value

$624.27

PnL

+$25.84

Record

35%

17563-32834 (50397)

lissartter

Invested

$415

Value

$390

PnL

-$10

Record

42%

5384-7432 (12816)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$196.98

Value

$296.51

PnL

+$106.27

Record

40%

706-1071 (1777)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$613.53

Value

$290.61

PnL

-$2.86

Record

16%

427-2305 (2732)

Both legs:

No$229.2378.9¢-$93.41

Yes$62.5521.5¢+$90.55

peepeepooppoop

Invested

$330.37

Value

$218.75

PnL

+$13.19

Record

51%

2129-2037 (4166)

cowcat

Invested

$17.5

Value

$132.6

PnL

+$115.1

Record

53%

1588-1422 (3010)

lpgb

Invested

$281.17

Value

$115.39

PnL

-$5.09

Record

24%

302-944 (1246)

SitsToPeeCTR

Yes

Invested

$79.33

Value

$102.66

PnL

+$23.33

Record

61%

289-185 (474)

e46m3

Invested

$671.42

Value

$35.11

PnL

+$85.72

Record

73%

13376-5006 (18382)

HyperlongCTR

Yes

Invested

$330.72

Value

$33.4

PnL

-$124.94

Record

43%

235-315 (550)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$24.96

Value

$24.8

PnL

-$0.16

Record

30%

2095-4887 (6982)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$33.98

Value

$14.83

PnL

+$0.13

Record

52%

6119-5645 (11764)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

685h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.2%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.