Will the Democratic Party win the TN-09 House seat?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 83¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$3.1K
-$81.78
83.8¢ → 83¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
670h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA Gaditima | Noavg 84¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$10.22 | 48% 6603-7156 (13759) |
RA RailcoolCTR | Yesavg 16¢ | $560.84 | $578.36 | +$17.53 | 51% 86-81 (167) |
LI lissartter | Noavg 83¢ | $415 | $417.5 | +$2.5 | 42% 5362-7388 (12750) |
 BigRabbitCTR | Yesavg 14.6¢ | $196.98 | $222.38 | +$25.4 | 40% 704-1065 (1769) |
SI SitsToPeeCTR | Yesavg 93¢ | $69.99 | $76.99 | +$7 | 61% 284-182 (466) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 83.1¢ | $38.52 | $38.7 | +$0.18 | 77% 11765-3605 (15370) |
 HyperlongCTR | Yes | $330.72 | $25.05 | -$124.18 | 43% 234-315 (549) |
Invested
$1,700.9
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$10.22
Record
48%
6603-7156 (13759)
Invested
$560.84
Value
$578.36
PnL
+$17.53
Record
51%
86-81 (167)
Invested
$415
Value
$417.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
42%
5362-7388 (12750)
BigRabbitCTRInvested
$196.98
Value
$222.38
PnL
+$25.4
Record
40%
704-1065 (1769)
Invested
$69.99
Value
$76.99
PnL
+$7
Record
61%
284-182 (466)
Invested
$38.52
Value
$38.7
PnL
+$0.18
Record
77%
11765-3605 (15370)
HyperlongCTRInvested
$330.72
Value
$25.05
PnL
-$124.18
Record
43%
234-315 (549)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.