Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 6% and 8%?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 84¢ · $873 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$872.93
$86.64
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
639h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
9 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 GayPride | Noavg 73.5¢ | $588.44 | $672.18 | +$83.75 | 49% 357-366 (723) |
 ScottyNoooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.4¢ | $90.02 | $84.82 | -$1.92 | 50% 1536-1510 (3046) |
CO cowcatCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.7¢ | $87.6 | $79.17 | -$8.43 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.9¢ | $34.33 | $19.07 | +$3.45 | 52% 2049-1868 (3917) |
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $7.9 | $17.69 | +$9.79 | 38% 19-31 (50) |
GayPrideInvested
$588.44
Value
$672.18
PnL
+$83.75
Record
49%
357-366 (723)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100Invested
$90.02
Value
$84.82
PnL
-$1.92
Record
50%
1536-1510 (3046)
Invested
$87.6
Value
$79.17
PnL
-$8.43
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$34.33
Value
$19.07
PnL
+$3.45
Record
52%
2049-1868 (3917)
Invested
$7.9
Value
$17.69
PnL
+$9.79
Record
38%
19-31 (50)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.