Will the Democratic Party win the NY-24 House seat?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 96¢ · $534 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$533.82
$34.87
85.2¢ → 96.2¢
+13% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KO korda77 | Noavg 84.9¢ | $387.74 | $445.57 | +$57.83 | 52% 4913-4509 (9422) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $51.06 | $60.01 | +$8.95 | 52% 2017-1845 (3862) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $18.11 | $17.84 | -$0.23 | 57% 13017-9926 (22943) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 97.7¢ | $105.78 | $5.01 | -$4.58 | 35% 14791-26919 (41710) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $32 | $4.9 | -$27.1 | 56% 15237-11760 (26997) |
Invested
$387.74
Value
$445.57
PnL
+$57.83
Record
52%
4913-4509 (9422)
Invested
$51.06
Value
$60.01
PnL
+$8.95
Record
52%
2017-1845 (3862)
Invested
$18.11
Value
$17.84
PnL
-$0.23
Record
57%
13017-9926 (22943)
Invested
$105.78
Value
$5.01
PnL
-$4.58
Record
35%
14791-26919 (41710)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$32
Value
$4.9
PnL
-$27.1
Record
56%
15237-11760 (26997)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.