Will the Democratic Party win the NC-10 House seat?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 97¢ · $644 held · ended Nov 4

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$644.4

Combined PnL

-$37.51

Smart Money Entry

91.9¢ → 97¢

+6% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$634.75

Total Shares650

Combined PnL-$17.32

Yes1 trader

Total Value$9.65

Total Shares643

Combined PnL-$20.19

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 89.9¢	$239.82	$252.56	+$15.9	35% 17800-33165 (50965)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 93.5¢	$150.53	$132.93	-$8.15	45% 2525-3059 (5584)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$76.4	$87.26	+$0.46	53% 22161-19289 (41450)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$87.14	$48.48	-$29.06	55% 181-147 (328)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 89.6¢	$40.31	$43.63	+$3.32	79% 12088-3268 (15356)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 92.6¢	$31.58	$33.08	+$1.49	50% 9583-9583 (19166)
GA Gaditima<$100	Noavg 94.6¢	$25.83	$21.3	-$4.53	48% 6965-7593 (14558)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 80.3¢	$8.03	$9.7	+$1.67	30% 2222-5090 (7312)
SI SitsToPeeCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$12.15	$9.65	-$20.19	59% 382-268 (650)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 70.5¢	$4.23	$5.82	+$1.59	26% 353-995 (1348)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$239.82

Value

$252.56

PnL

+$15.9

Record

35%

17800-33165 (50965)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$150.53

Value

$132.93

PnL

-$8.15

Record

45%

2525-3059 (5584)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$76.4

Value

$87.26

PnL

+$0.46

Record

53%

22161-19289 (41450)

TheWindKnowsmyName<$100

Invested

$87.14

Value

$48.48

PnL

-$29.06

Record

55%

181-147 (328)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$40.31

Value

$43.63

PnL

+$3.32

Record

79%

12088-3268 (15356)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$31.58

Value

$33.08

PnL

+$1.49

Record

50%

9583-9583 (19166)

Gaditima<$100

Invested

$25.83

Value

$21.3

PnL

-$4.53

Record

48%

6965-7593 (14558)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$8.03

Value

$9.7

PnL

+$1.67

Record

30%

2222-5090 (7312)

SitsToPeeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.15

Value

$9.65

PnL

-$20.19

Record

59%

382-268 (650)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$4.23

Value

$5.82

PnL

+$1.59

Record

26%

353-995 (1348)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.