Will the Democratic Party win the NC-08 House seat?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 96¢ · $433 held · ends Nov 4

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$433

Combined PnL

$31.64

Smart Money Entry

87¢ → 96¢

+10% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$426.04

Total Shares432

Combined PnL+$38.12

Yes4 traders

Total Value$7.26

Total Shares205

Combined PnL-$6.48

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IN influenz.eth	Noavg 85¢	$303.45	$344.33	+$40.88	42% 9929-13841 (23770)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$84.47	$81.71	-$2.76	35% 14744-26906 (41650)
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.6¢	$10.71	$5.02	-$5.69	40% 9437-14102 (23539)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$2.4	$1.78	-$0.63	42% 5191-7110 (12301)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$0.18	$0.36	+$0.18	53% 6286-5517 (11803)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$0.45	$0.11	-$0.34	52% 2017-1845 (3862)

influenz.eth

Invested

$303.45

Value

$344.33

PnL

+$40.88

Record

42%

9929-13841 (23770)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$84.47

Value

$81.71

PnL

-$2.76

Record

35%

14744-26906 (41650)

cry.eth2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.71

Value

$5.02

PnL

-$5.69

Record

40%

9437-14102 (23539)

lissartterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$1.78

PnL

-$0.63

Record

42%

5191-7110 (12301)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.36

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

6286-5517 (11803)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.34

Record

52%

2017-1845 (3862)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.