Will the Democratic Party win the NC-05 House seat?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 85¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Yes15¢No85¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$122.76

Smart Money Entry

84.6¢ → 84.7¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$980.25

Total Shares1,123

Combined PnL-$25.67

Yes4 traders

Total Value$671.89

Total Shares3,548

Combined PnL+$148.44

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 84.5¢	$16.9	$616.27	-$25.56	54% 22035-19135 (41170)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 14.3¢	$236.37	$286	+$49.63	40% 706-1071 (1777)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 14.7¢	$45.35	$194.24	+$29.64	45% 2406-2980 (5386)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 86.3¢	$510.46	$192.83	+$1.27	35% 17563-32834 (50397)
SI SitsToPeeCTR	Yesavg 11¢	$57.12	$183.99	+$69.12	61% 289-185 (474)
AB ABC12345654321	Noavg 83.2¢	$163.8	$162.58	-$1.22	50% 1695-1681 (3376)
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Noavg 84.5¢	$8.45	$8.56	-$0.16	51% 2129-2037 (4166)
AN anoin123CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.2¢	$7.61	$7.66	+$0.05	47% 484-550 (1034)

cigarettes

Invested

$16.9

Value

$616.27

PnL

-$25.56

Record

54%

22035-19135 (41170)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$236.37

Value

$286

PnL

+$49.63

Record

40%

706-1071 (1777)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$45.35

Value

$194.24

PnL

+$29.64

Record

45%

2406-2980 (5386)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$510.46

Value

$192.83

PnL

+$1.27

Record

35%

17563-32834 (50397)

SitsToPeeCTR

Yes

Invested

$57.12

Value

$183.99

PnL

+$69.12

Record

61%

289-185 (474)

ABC12345654321

Invested

$163.8

Value

$162.58

PnL

-$1.22

Record

50%

1695-1681 (3376)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Invested

$8.45

Value

$8.56

PnL

-$0.16

Record

51%

2129-2037 (4166)

anoin123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.61

Value

$7.66

PnL

+$0.05

Record

47%

484-550 (1034)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.