Will the Democratic Party win the KS-02 House seat?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 80¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 4

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$392.72

Smart Money Entry

80.2¢ → 79.5¢

-1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares16,085

Combined PnL+$503.83

No10 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,812

Combined PnL-$111.11

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+46 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

674h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (14 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 15.8¢	$1.6K	$2.1K	+$474.47	40% 706-1067 (1773)
RA RailcoolCTR	Yesavg 20.5¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$1.96	52% 87-81 (168)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 80.3¢	$965.03	$950.98	-$2.05	45% 2389-2955 (5344)
DO donthackme	Noavg 80.9¢	$651.52	$639.96	-$11.56	74% 12148-4326 (16474)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 80.3¢	$501.26	$492.34	+$6.42	54% 21850-18953 (40803)
AN anciano	Noavg 80.2¢	$318.33	$315.56	-$2.77	52% 1168-1072 (2240)
PE peepeepooppoop	Noavg 78.8¢	$233.01	$185.24	+$1.5	51% 2116-2028 (4144)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 82¢	$514.01	$132.69	-$100.62	35% 17316-32015 (49331)
AB ABC12345654321	Noavg 79¢	$165	$131.18	+$0.83	50% 1694-1680 (3374)
GA Gaditima	Noavg 78¢	$125.49	$127.9	+$2.41	48% 6843-7476 (14319)
SI SitsToPeeCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.8¢	$43.17	$75.06	+$31.89	61% 284-183 (467)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 78.7¢	$71.12	$58.92	-$0.26	57% 17750-13286 (31036)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$24.06	$23.49	-$0.57	17% 1059-5131 (6190)
LI lissartter	Noavg 80¢	$400	$3.95	-$5	42% 5367-7395 (12762)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,575.58

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$474.47

Record

40%

706-1067 (1773)

RailcoolCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,150.79

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$1.96

Record

52%

87-81 (168)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$965.03

Value

$950.98

PnL

-$2.05

Record

45%

2389-2955 (5344)

donthackme

Invested

$651.52

Value

$639.96

PnL

-$11.56

Record

74%

12148-4326 (16474)

cigarettes

Invested

$501.26

Value

$492.34

PnL

+$6.42

Record

54%

21850-18953 (40803)

anciano

Invested

$318.33

Value

$315.56

PnL

-$2.77

Record

52%

1168-1072 (2240)

peepeepooppoop

Invested

$233.01

Value

$185.24

PnL

+$1.5

Record

51%

2116-2028 (4144)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$514.01

Value

$132.69

PnL

-$100.62

Record

35%

17316-32015 (49331)

ABC12345654321

Invested

$165

Value

$131.18

PnL

+$0.83

Record

50%

1694-1680 (3374)

Gaditima

Invested

$125.49

Value

$127.9

PnL

+$2.41

Record

48%

6843-7476 (14319)

SitsToPeeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.17

Value

$75.06

PnL

+$31.89

Record

61%

284-183 (467)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$71.12

Value

$58.92

PnL

-$0.26

Record

57%

17750-13286 (31036)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.06

Value

$23.49

PnL

-$0.57

Record

17%

1059-5131 (6190)

lissartter

Invested

$400

Value

$3.95

PnL

-$5

Record

42%

5367-7395 (12762)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+46 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

674h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (14 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.1%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.