Will the Democratic Party win the IN-08 House seat?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.3K
$43.91
92.5¢ → 97.9¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PU purplegatto | Noavg 91.7¢ | $698.2 | $734.37 | +$36.17 | 50% 5953-6043 (11996) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 93.5¢ | $437.38 | $436.01 | -$1.24 | 18% 366-1654 (2020) |
 balthazar | Noavg 94.4¢ | $103.85 | $106.08 | +$2.23 | 61% 21355-13647 (35002) |
CO cowcatCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.65 | $7.67 | +$7.02 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.9¢ | $3.07 | $2.79 | -$0.28 | 36% 16083-28096 (44179) |
Invested
$698.2
Value
$734.37
PnL
+$36.17
Record
50%
5953-6043 (11996)
IstarothInvested
$437.38
Value
$436.01
PnL
-$1.24
Record
18%
366-1654 (2020)
balthazarInvested
$103.85
Value
$106.08
PnL
+$2.23
Record
61%
21355-13647 (35002)
Invested
$0.65
Value
$7.67
PnL
+$7.02
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$3.07
Value
$2.79
PnL
-$0.28
Record
36%
16083-28096 (44179)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.