Will the Democratic Party win the CA-22 House seat?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 92¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Yes92¢No8¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$123.52

Smart Money Entry

86.1¢ → 92¢

+7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes92%

No8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,689

Combined PnL+$160.09

No2 traders

Total Value$24.57

Total Shares307

Combined PnL-$36.57

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Seutervoinen	Yesavg 84.4¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$153.45	85% 301-55 (356)
mrworldwide	Yesavg 91¢	$604.2	$610.84	+$6.64	69% 799-359 (1158)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 22.8¢	$88.38	$24.47	-$36.41	36% 14842-26964 (41806)
GohstCTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$0.27	$0.1	-$0.16	49% 733-764 (1497)

Seutervoinen

Yes

Invested

$1,709.51

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$153.45

Record

85%

301-55 (356)

mrworldwide

Yes

Invested

$604.2

Value

$610.84

PnL

+$6.64

Record

69%

799-359 (1158)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$88.38

Value

$24.47

PnL

-$36.41

Record

36%

14842-26964 (41806)

GohstCTR<$100

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.16

Record

49%

733-764 (1497)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.