Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (67%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-08 House seat?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 33¢ · $715 held · ends Nov 4

Yes67¢No33¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$715.17

Combined PnL

$63.15

Smart Money Entry

70.9¢ → 33¢

-53% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes67%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$399.54

Total Shares340

Combined PnL+$87.64

Yes2 traders

Total Value$115.63

Total Shares678

Combined PnL-$24.48

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Noavg 62.8¢	$148.17	$263.57	+$156.54	45% 2406-2980 (5386)
GA GaditimaARB<$100	Noavg 91.3¢	$211.25	$200	-$11.25	48% 6904-7549 (14453)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14.4¢	$28.71	$121	+$92.29
└ No leg	Noavg 91.3¢	$182.55	$79	-$103.55
SI SitsToPee<$100	Yes	$80.46	$80.46	-$24.47	61% 289-185 (474)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 84.4¢	$143.03	$38.31	-$69.72	35% 17595-32915 (50510)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Noavg 88¢	$60.7	$37.23	+$10.15	50% 1696-1690 (3386)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$35.19	$35.17	-$0.01	56% 171-134 (305)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 54¢	$16.2	$26.1	+$9.9	62% 14572-9115 (23687)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Noavg 81.8¢	$30.28	$14.25	-$16.03	73% 13478-5027 (18505)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 57¢	$11.4	$8.7	-$2.7	79% 11986-3185 (15171)
thanksforplayinCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$8.97	$7.83	-$1.14	54% 391-327 (718)
CO cowcatCTR<$100	Noavg 81¢	$1.69	$1.83	+$0.14	53% 1588-1422 (3010)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Noavg 62¢	$1.23	$1.73	+$0.5	39% 5330-8353 (13683)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Invested

$148.17

Value

$263.57

PnL

+$156.54

Record

45%

2406-2980 (5386)

GaditimaARB<$100

Invested

$211.25

Value

$200

PnL

-$11.25

Record

48%

6904-7549 (14453)

Both legs:

Yes$28.7114.4¢+$92.29

No$182.5591.3¢-$103.55

SitsToPee<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.46

Value

$80.46

PnL

-$24.47

Record

61%

289-185 (474)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$143.03

Value

$38.31

PnL

-$69.72

Record

35%

17595-32915 (50510)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Invested

$60.7

Value

$37.23

PnL

+$10.15

Record

50%

1696-1690 (3386)

TheWindKnowsmyName<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.19

Value

$35.17

PnL

-$0.01

Record

56%

171-134 (305)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$16.2

Value

$26.1

PnL

+$9.9

Record

62%

14572-9115 (23687)

e46m3CTR<$100

Invested

$30.28

Value

$14.25

PnL

-$16.03

Record

73%

13478-5027 (18505)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$11.4

Value

$8.7

PnL

-$2.7

Record

79%

11986-3185 (15171)

thanksforplayinCTR<$100

Invested

$8.97

Value

$7.83

PnL

-$1.14

Record

54%

391-327 (718)

cowcatCTR<$100

Invested

$1.69

Value

$1.83

PnL

+$0.14

Record

53%

1588-1422 (3010)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Invested

$1.23

Value

$1.73

PnL

+$0.5

Record

39%

5330-8353 (13683)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 33%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.9%

33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$186.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

286.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.