Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-06 House seat?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 4

Yes99¢No1¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$245.85

Smart Money Entry

87.6¢ → 99¢

+13% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,449

Combined PnL+$246.95

No2 traders

Total Value$1.89

Total Shares52

Combined PnL-$1.09

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

553h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
mrworldwide	Yesavg 87.8¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$177.57	70% 849-367 (1216)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 90.3¢	$315.71	$329.12	+$29.9	45% 2407-2981 (5388)
ifyouloveme	Yesavg 89¢	$178	$195.8	+$17.8	52% 280-254 (534)
PE peepeepooppoop	Yesavg 74.4¢	$103.18	$121.52	+$18.35	51% 2129-2037 (4166)
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 83¢	$39.84	$13.44	+$2.2	41% 4499-6366 (10865)
BE berlinskies<$100	Yesavg 89¢	$10	$11.01	+$0.34	58% 6349-4583 (10932)
IW iWasEnough<$100	Yesavg 87¢	$4.35	$4.9	+$0.55	51% 11679-11100 (22779)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 87¢	$4.34	$4.89	+$0.25	50% 20309-20664 (40973)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$2.74	$1.83	-$0.91	61% 15689-10005 (25694)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 4¢	$0.24	$0.06	-$0.18	38% 985-1576 (2561)

mrworldwide

Yes

Invested

$1,545.61

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$177.57

Record

70%

849-367 (1216)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$315.71

Value

$329.12

PnL

+$29.9

Record

45%

2407-2981 (5388)

ifyouloveme

Yes

Invested

$178

Value

$195.8

PnL

+$17.8

Record

52%

280-254 (534)

peepeepooppoop

Yes

Invested

$103.18

Value

$121.52

PnL

+$18.35

Record

51%

2129-2037 (4166)

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.84

Value

$13.44

PnL

+$2.2

Record

41%

4499-6366 (10865)

berlinskies<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$11.01

PnL

+$0.34

Record

58%

6349-4583 (10932)

iWasEnough<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.35

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0.55

Record

51%

11679-11100 (22779)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.34

Value

$4.89

PnL

+$0.25

Record

50%

20309-20664 (40973)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Invested

$2.74

Value

$1.83

PnL

-$0.91

Record

61%

15689-10005 (25694)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.18

Record

38%

985-1576 (2561)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

553h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.