Will the Democratic Party control the Texas Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 98¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 4

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$148.69

Smart Money Entry

89.8¢ → 98¢

+9% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares2,682

Combined PnL+$160.72

Yes2 traders

Total Value$40.17

Total Shares1,505

Combined PnL-$12.03

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 86.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$84.87	45% 2784-3336 (6120)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 90.7¢	$474.52	$501.02	+$26.5	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 92.7¢	$242.5	$256.44	+$13.94	53% 22496-19712 (42208)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 91.4¢	$201.84	$216.63	+$14.79	47% 2130-2428 (4558)
Lucerys	Noavg 93.4¢	$201.76	$213.77	+$12.02	78% 12472-3601 (16073)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 94.1¢	$71.15	$74.37	+$3.21	53% 29191-26096 (55287)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 94.5¢	$58.78	$60.99	+$2.21	40% 1032-1567 (2599)
OB ObilicCTR	Yesavg 15.6¢	$115.49	$39.42	-$76.08	40% 137-205 (342)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$36.94	$37.92	+$0.98	55% 4405-3598 (8003)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$31.54	$32.14	+$0.6	72% 13908-5278 (19186)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 95¢	$24.03	$24.81	+$0.78	39% 1048-1650 (2698)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 93.8¢	$14.04	$14.57	+$0.52	43% 3101-4154 (7255)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 87.1¢	$2.61	$2.92	+$0.31	40% 2163-3205 (5368)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR	Yesavg 32.5¢	$733.83	$0.75	+$64.04	52% 242-226 (468)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$1,195.33

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$84.87

Record

45%

2784-3336 (6120)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$474.52

Value

$501.02

PnL

+$26.5

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

cigarettes

Invested

$242.5

Value

$256.44

PnL

+$13.94

Record

53%

22496-19712 (42208)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$201.84

Value

$216.63

PnL

+$14.79

Record

47%

2130-2428 (4558)

Lucerys

Invested

$201.76

Value

$213.77

PnL

+$12.02

Record

78%

12472-3601 (16073)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$71.15

Value

$74.37

PnL

+$3.21

Record

53%

29191-26096 (55287)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$58.78

Value

$60.99

PnL

+$2.21

Record

40%

1032-1567 (2599)

ObilicCTR

Yes

Invested

$115.49

Value

$39.42

PnL

-$76.08

Record

40%

137-205 (342)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$36.94

Value

$37.92

PnL

+$0.98

Record

55%

4405-3598 (8003)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$31.54

Value

$32.14

PnL

+$0.6

Record

72%

13908-5278 (19186)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$24.03

Value

$24.81

PnL

+$0.78

Record

39%

1048-1650 (2698)

merod<$100

Invested

$14.04

Value

$14.57

PnL

+$0.52

Record

43%

3101-4154 (7255)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$2.61

Value

$2.92

PnL

+$0.31

Record

40%

2163-3205 (5368)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR

Yes

Invested

$733.83

Value

$0.75

PnL

+$64.04

Record

52%

242-226 (468)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.