Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (87%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2028 elections?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 13¢ · $73 held · ends Nov 8, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 75%
$72.69
-$78.41
Research grade
AvoidNo at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 87%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Yesavg 80¢ | $54.23 | $38.04 | -$16.19 | 20% 2587-10256 (12843) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 40¢ | $219.67 | $28.06 | -$56.38 | 35% 18146-33983 (52129) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 23.4¢ | $8.6 | $4.77 | -$3.83 | 18% 340-1570 (1910) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 27.4¢ | $3.83 | $1.82 | -$2.01 | 77% 12521-3667 (16188) |
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$54.23
Value
$38.04
PnL
-$16.19
Record
20%
2587-10256 (12843)
Invested
$219.67
Value
$28.06
PnL
-$56.38
Record
35%
18146-33983 (52129)
Invested
$8.6
Value
$4.77
PnL
-$3.83
Record
18%
340-1570 (1910)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$3.83
Value
$1.82
PnL
-$2.01
Record
77%
12521-3667 (16188)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
13.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.