Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 9%-12%?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$1.3K
$253.56
76.8¢ → 100¢
+30% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Mature
30h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shiifoo | Noavg 72.5¢ | $634.06 | $858.43 | +$224.36 | 59% 3657-2550 (6207) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 77.8¢ | $345.3 | $290.48 | +$21.74 | 35% 17632-33001 (50633) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $73.09 | $73.69 | +$0.59 | 60% 11537-7729 (19266) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Noavg 78.1¢ | $185.31 | $31.38 | +$6.86 | 45% 2415-2986 (5401) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | -$0 | 41% 6764-9623 (16387) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | -$0 | 47% 8121-9319 (17440) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $7.02 | $7.02 | -$0 | 73% 13523-5052 (18575) |
Invested
$634.06
Value
$858.43
PnL
+$224.36
Record
59%
3657-2550 (6207)
Invested
$345.3
Value
$290.48
PnL
+$21.74
Record
35%
17632-33001 (50633)
Invested
$73.09
Value
$73.69
PnL
+$0.59
Record
60%
11537-7729 (19266)
Invested
$185.31
Value
$31.38
PnL
+$6.86
Record
45%
2415-2986 (5401)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
-$0
Record
41%
6764-9623 (16387)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
-$0
Record
47%
8121-9319 (17440)
Invested
$7.02
Value
$7.02
PnL
-$0
Record
73%
13523-5052 (18575)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.