Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 18% or more?

17 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 56¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 4

Yes44¢No56¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$634.11

Smart Money Entry

82.3¢ → 55.9¢

-32% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 20 top traders (85%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,117

Combined PnL-$220.95

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,742

Combined PnL+$855.06

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 83.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$16.73	53% 28766-25687 (54453)
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540CTR	Yesavg 19.2¢	$467.28	$977.1	+$509.82	53% 107-95 (202)
PO Poligarch	Noavg 76.5¢	$528.02	$534.43	+$6.41	53% 9847-8570 (18417)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 18.8¢	$599.88	$500.2	+$339.28	45% 2415-2986 (5401)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 75.6¢	$515.81	$397.85	+$86.56	35% 17632-33001 (50633)
└ No leg	Noavg 75.6¢	$329.12	$292.28	-$89.23
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 6.1¢	$19.58	$105.57	+$175.79
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495ARB<$100	Noavg 58.7¢	$215.01	$336.07	+$164.77	56% 18160-14055 (32215)
└ No leg	Noavg 58.7¢	$169.23	$173.99	+$4.75
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 9.1¢	$37.29	$162.08	+$160.02
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 79.4¢	$250.09	$211.63	-$38.46	61% 14590-9140 (23730)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 88¢	$188.2	$124.46	-$9.02	53% 8026-7128 (15154)
Lucerys	Noavg 87.7¢	$139.53	$110.18	-$29.36	79% 12035-3234 (15269)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 91.5¢	$100.62	$55	-$45.62	41% 6764-9623 (16387)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 80.1¢	$57.71	$51.54	-$6.17	40% 2090-3134 (5224)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 87.6¢	$87.56	$50	-$37.56	60% 11537-7729 (19266)
SH shiifoo<$100	Noavg 90.8¢	$65.4	$36	-$29.4	59% 3657-2550 (6207)
thanksforplayin<$100	Noavg 57.2¢	$45.73	$32.73	+$23.71	55% 400-331 (731)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 90.3¢	$50.49	$27.97	-$22.52	25% 327-975 (1302)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 79.3¢	$23.78	$15	-$8.78	47% 8121-9319 (17440)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.6	$12.03	+$5.96	52% 1672-1547 (3219)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 86¢	$13.12	$10.75	-$2.37	39% 989-1579 (2568)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 86¢	$11.38	$9.08	-$2.3	41% 1047-1530 (2577)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 79.3¢	$9.54	$6.02	-$3.52	73% 13523-5052 (18575)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 51¢	$3.93	$5.34	+$1.41	38% 977-1591 (2568)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 86.1¢	$4.31	$3.65	-$0.66	55% 4354-3545 (7899)

balthazar

Invested

$1,195.24

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$16.73

Record

53%

28766-25687 (54453)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540CTR

Yes

Invested

$467.28

Value

$977.1

PnL

+$509.82

Record

53%

107-95 (202)

Poligarch

Invested

$528.02

Value

$534.43

PnL

+$6.41

Record

53%

9847-8570 (18417)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$599.88

Value

$500.2

PnL

+$339.28

Record

45%

2415-2986 (5401)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$515.81

Value

$397.85

PnL

+$86.56

Record

35%

17632-33001 (50633)

Both legs:

No$329.1275.6¢-$89.23

Yes$19.586.1¢+$175.79

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495ARB<$100

Invested

$215.01

Value

$336.07

PnL

+$164.77

Record

56%

18160-14055 (32215)

Both legs:

No$169.2358.7¢+$4.75

Yes$37.299.1¢+$160.02

graynotebook19

Invested

$250.09

Value

$211.63

PnL

-$38.46

Record

61%

14590-9140 (23730)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$188.2

Value

$124.46

PnL

-$9.02

Record

53%

8026-7128 (15154)

Lucerys

Invested

$139.53

Value

$110.18

PnL

-$29.36

Record

79%

12035-3234 (15269)

godblessme2026

Invested

$100.62

Value

$55

PnL

-$45.62

Record

41%

6764-9623 (16387)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$57.71

Value

$51.54

PnL

-$6.17

Record

40%

2090-3134 (5224)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$87.56

Value

$50

PnL

-$37.56

Record

60%

11537-7729 (19266)

shiifoo<$100

Invested

$65.4

Value

$36

PnL

-$29.4

Record

59%

3657-2550 (6207)

thanksforplayin<$100

Invested

$45.73

Value

$32.73

PnL

+$23.71

Record

55%

400-331 (731)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$50.49

Value

$27.97

PnL

-$22.52

Record

25%

327-975 (1302)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$23.78

Value

$15

PnL

-$8.78

Record

47%

8121-9319 (17440)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$12.03

PnL

+$5.96

Record

52%

1672-1547 (3219)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$13.12

Value

$10.75

PnL

-$2.37

Record

39%

989-1579 (2568)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$11.38

Value

$9.08

PnL

-$2.3

Record

41%

1047-1530 (2577)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$9.54

Value

$6.02

PnL

-$3.52

Record

73%

13523-5052 (18575)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$3.93

Value

$5.34

PnL

+$1.41

Record

38%

977-1591 (2568)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.31

Value

$3.65

PnL

-$0.66

Record

55%

4354-3545 (7899)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

17 of 20 top traders (85%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.8%

55.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$72.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

172.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.