Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 15%-18%?

18 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 53¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 4

Yes47¢No53¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$620.94

Smart Money Entry

24.9¢ → 52.6¢

+111% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 22 top traders (82%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No18 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,012

Combined PnL+$551.72

Yes4 traders

Total Value$68.41

Total Shares106

Combined PnL+$69.21

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Late

458h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (20 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 20

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 62¢	$639.79	$568.99	-$21.37	35% 17632-33001 (50633)
└ No leg	Noavg 62¢	$542.55	$307.11	-$241.37
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14.7¢	$59.33	$261.88	+$220
balthazar	Noavg 15.1¢	$184.48	$458.89	+$274.41	53% 28766-25687 (54453)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938ARB<$100	Noavg 39.3¢	$242.59	$323.52	+$300.37	45% 2415-2986 (5401)
└ No leg	Noavg 39.3¢	$180.63	$246.48	+$65.85
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14.2¢	$23.59	$77.04	+$234.51
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlARB<$100	Noavg 26¢	$315.86	$295.44	+$171.78	—
└ No leg	Noavg 26¢	$76.89	$190.26	+$170.04
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 9.7¢	$28.54	$105.18	+$1.74
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 19.5¢	$93.29	$264.68	+$171.39	61% 14590-9140 (23730)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495ARB<$100	Yesavg 75.5¢	$190.64	$185.81	-$4.84	56% 18160-14055 (32215)
└ No leg	Noavg 13¢	$20.77	$96.48	+$75.71
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 75.5¢	$169.88	$89.33	-$80.55
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 26.5¢	$70.1	$99.24	+$29.14	48% 8595-9145 (17740)
SH shiifoo<$100	Noavg 46.1¢	$89.13	$67.92	-$21.21	59% 3657-2550 (6207)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 33¢	$26.78	$47.65	+$20.86	41% 1047-1530 (2577)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 15¢	$10.55	$42.28	+$31.73	47% 1613-1794 (3407)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 33.2¢	$26.62	$41.28	+$14.66	55% 4354-3545 (7899)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 33.1¢	$27.57	$41.2	+$13.63	47% 2072-2346 (4418)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 34.9¢	$28.19	$40.41	+$12.22	40% 986-1509 (2495)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 18¢	$19.87	$38.79	+$18.92	79% 12035-3234 (15269)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 37.7¢	$30.73	$35.82	+$5.09	53% 9847-8570 (18417)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 39.3¢	$39.28	$35.1	-$4.18	60% 11537-7729 (19266)
4751346CTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$22	$32.45	+$10.45	72% 1265-484 (1749)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 75.8¢	$53.03	$24.57	-$28.46	51% 3511-3414 (6925)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.2¢	$2.26	$23.62	+$25.72	52% 1672-1547 (3219)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 42.2¢	$47.18	$19.63	-$4.52	25% 327-975 (1302)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 88.9¢	$15.28	$13.72	+$12.99	20% 2524-10014 (12538)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 87.5¢	$10.51	$7.51	-$3	53% 8026-7128 (15154)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 20.9¢	$4.05	$6.78	+$2.73	38% 977-1591 (2568)
thanksforplayinCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$30.73	$4.84	+$36.05	55% 400-331 (731)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 22¢	$2.22	$3.55	+$1.32	40% 2090-3134 (5224)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$639.79

Value

$568.99

PnL

-$21.37

Record

35%

17632-33001 (50633)

Both legs:

No$542.5562¢-$241.37

Yes$59.3314.7¢+$220

balthazar

Invested

$184.48

Value

$458.89

PnL

+$274.41

Record

53%

28766-25687 (54453)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938ARB<$100

Invested

$242.59

Value

$323.52

PnL

+$300.37

Record

45%

2415-2986 (5401)

Both legs:

No$180.6339.3¢+$65.85

Yes$23.5914.2¢+$234.51

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlARB<$100

Invested

$315.86

Value

$295.44

PnL

+$171.78

Record

—

Both legs:

No$76.8926¢+$170.04

Yes$28.549.7¢+$1.74

graynotebook19

Invested

$93.29

Value

$264.68

PnL

+$171.39

Record

61%

14590-9140 (23730)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$190.64

Value

$185.81

PnL

-$4.84

Record

56%

18160-14055 (32215)

Both legs:

No$20.7713¢+$75.71

Yes$169.8875.5¢-$80.55

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$70.1

Value

$99.24

PnL

+$29.14

Record

48%

8595-9145 (17740)

shiifoo<$100

Invested

$89.13

Value

$67.92

PnL

-$21.21

Record

59%

3657-2550 (6207)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$26.78

Value

$47.65

PnL

+$20.86

Record

41%

1047-1530 (2577)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$10.55

Value

$42.28

PnL

+$31.73

Record

47%

1613-1794 (3407)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$26.62

Value

$41.28

PnL

+$14.66

Record

55%

4354-3545 (7899)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$27.57

Value

$41.2

PnL

+$13.63

Record

47%

2072-2346 (4418)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$28.19

Value

$40.41

PnL

+$12.22

Record

40%

986-1509 (2495)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$19.87

Value

$38.79

PnL

+$18.92

Record

79%

12035-3234 (15269)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$30.73

Value

$35.82

PnL

+$5.09

Record

53%

9847-8570 (18417)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$39.28

Value

$35.1

PnL

-$4.18

Record

60%

11537-7729 (19266)

4751346CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22

Value

$32.45

PnL

+$10.45

Record

72%

1265-484 (1749)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$53.03

Value

$24.57

PnL

-$28.46

Record

51%

3511-3414 (6925)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.26

Value

$23.62

PnL

+$25.72

Record

52%

1672-1547 (3219)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$47.18

Value

$19.63

PnL

-$4.52

Record

25%

327-975 (1302)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$15.28

Value

$13.72

PnL

+$12.99

Record

20%

2524-10014 (12538)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.51

Value

$7.51

PnL

-$3

Record

53%

8026-7128 (15154)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.05

Value

$6.78

PnL

+$2.73

Record

38%

977-1591 (2568)

thanksforplayinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.73

Value

$4.84

PnL

+$36.05

Record

55%

400-331 (731)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$2.22

Value

$3.55

PnL

+$1.32

Record

40%

2090-3134 (5224)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

18 of 22 top traders (82%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Late

458h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (20 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 20

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.6%

52.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$83.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

183.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.