Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 12%-15%?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 78¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
1 arb excluded
$8.6K
$662.14
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
69h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL Albert 1953 | Noavg 66.3¢ | $5.7K | $6.5K | +$746.71 | 50% 1080-1085 (2165) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $1.9K | $1.6K | -$122.45 | 19% 319-1318 (1637) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 69¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$94.66 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 33.8¢ | $542.93 | $401.96 | -$217.12 | |
SB sbimbgCTR | Yesavg 32.3¢ | $506.98 | $392.74 | -$114.25 | 70% 3149-1361 (4510) |
SH shiifooCTR | Yesavg 23.9¢ | $106.92 | $112 | +$5.08 | 60% 3351-2263 (5614) |
CO cocococococoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $10.2 | $34.8 | +$24.6 | 52% 1658-1528 (3186) |
Invested
$5,714.87
Value
$6.5K
PnL
+$746.71
Record
50%
1080-1085 (2165)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$1,945.31
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$122.45
Record
19%
319-1318 (1637)
Both legs:
Invested
$506.98
Value
$392.74
PnL
-$114.25
Record
70%
3149-1361 (4510)
Invested
$106.92
Value
$112
PnL
+$5.08
Record
60%
3351-2263 (5614)
Invested
$10.2
Value
$34.8
PnL
+$24.6
Record
52%
1658-1528 (3186)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.