Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election by 9%-12%?

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 93¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4

Yes7¢No93¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$291.81

Smart Money Entry

76.4¢ → 93¢

+22% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,192

Combined PnL+$152.64

Yes6 traders

Total Value$161.18

Total Shares2,015

Combined PnL+$139.16

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

165h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 66.3¢	$466.02	$462.84	+$142.69	53% 29253-26162 (55415)
Haradwaith	Noavg 81¢	$16.2	$239.53	-$41.27	42% 5392-7314 (12706)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 83.1¢	$279.28	$172.19	-$0.85	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR	Yesavg 10.4¢	$172.71	$132.4	+$143.99	66% 271-142 (413)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 90¢	$79.29	$80.45	+$1.16	20% 2587-10256 (12843)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 87¢	$34.8	$73.6	-$8.96	53% 22623-19873 (42496)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 85.6¢	$38.97	$41.4	+$3.07	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 92¢	$32.96	$30.52	-$0.68	14% 461-2750 (3211)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89.7¢	$23.17	$23.67	+$0.5	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.7¢	$23.87	$21.84	-$2.03	59% 13-9 (22)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 5.8¢	$4.65	$4.6	+$56.52	42% 7010-9803 (16813)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 83¢	$4.15	$4.6	+$0.45	49% 8836-9340 (18176)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.1¢	$4.43	$2.7	-$1.73	77% 12289-3775 (16064)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yes	$2.4	$2.4	+$0	73% 12861-4791 (17652)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.1¢	$1.61	$1.6	-$0.01	59% 3711-2579 (6290)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 6¢	$149.27	$0.23	-$1.05	77% 12521-3667 (16188)

balthazar

Invested

$466.02

Value

$462.84

PnL

+$142.69

Record

53%

29253-26162 (55415)

Haradwaith

Invested

$16.2

Value

$239.53

PnL

-$41.27

Record

42%

5392-7314 (12706)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$279.28

Value

$172.19

PnL

-$0.85

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR

Yes

Invested

$172.71

Value

$132.4

PnL

+$143.99

Record

66%

271-142 (413)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$79.29

Value

$80.45

PnL

+$1.16

Record

20%

2587-10256 (12843)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$34.8

Value

$73.6

PnL

-$8.96

Record

53%

22623-19873 (42496)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$38.97

Value

$41.4

PnL

+$3.07

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$32.96

Value

$30.52

PnL

-$0.68

Record

14%

461-2750 (3211)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$23.17

Value

$23.67

PnL

+$0.5

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.87

Value

$21.84

PnL

-$2.03

Record

59%

13-9 (22)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$56.52

Record

42%

7010-9803 (16813)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$4.15

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$0.45

Record

49%

8836-9340 (18176)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.43

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$1.73

Record

77%

12289-3775 (16064)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0

Record

73%

12861-4791 (17652)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.61

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$0.01

Record

59%

3711-2579 (6290)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$149.27

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$1.05

Record

77%

12521-3667 (16188)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

165h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.2%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.13

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.