Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (53%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$411.02

Smart Money Entry

76.2¢ → 99.6¢

+31% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$999.42

Total Shares903

Combined PnL+$277.6

Yes7 traders

Total Value$582.06

Total Shares3,109

Combined PnL+$133.42

No — 53%Yes — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

113h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (14 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 70.1¢	$917.19	$677.85	+$136.82	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
└ No leg	Noavg 70.1¢	$350.89	$495.31	+$68.67
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22.6¢	$217.37	$182.54	+$68.14
Istaroth	Noavg 79.4¢	$731.43	$585.97	+$80.64	14% 461-2750 (3211)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 15¢	$417.19	$477.61	+$84.43	45% 2819-3389 (6208)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 76¢	$103.05	$133.15	+$30.1	71% 7114-2861 (9975)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 80.6¢	$245.32	$127.78	+$46.47	53% 8223-7324 (15547)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.1¢	$27.95	$65.36	+$33.99	59% 3711-2579 (6290)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 33¢	$41.9	$51.48	+$86.54	42% 7010-9803 (16813)
balthazar	Noavg 78.5¢	$196.28	$50.1	+$23.96	53% 29253-26162 (55415)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 76.5¢	$34.67	$40.79	+$6.12	20% 2587-10256 (12843)
StarMasterCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.5¢	$37.93	$25.28	-$20.64	53% 1906-1683 (3589)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR<$100	Yesavg 25.8¢	$9.12	$6.71	-$3.82	66% 271-142 (413)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yes	$5.7	$5.7	+$0	73% 12861-4791 (17652)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 81¢	$4.25	$5.2	+$0.94	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 70¢	$3.97	$4.95	+$2.82	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
RayGuyCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.5	$0.88	+$0.38	—
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 5¢	$218.13	$0.52	+$39.08	77% 12521-3667 (16188)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$917.19

Value

$677.85

PnL

+$136.82

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

Both legs:

No$350.8970.1¢+$68.67

Yes$217.3722.6¢+$68.14

Istaroth

Invested

$731.43

Value

$585.97

PnL

+$80.64

Record

14%

461-2750 (3211)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$417.19

Value

$477.61

PnL

+$84.43

Record

45%

2819-3389 (6208)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$103.05

Value

$133.15

PnL

+$30.1

Record

71%

7114-2861 (9975)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$245.32

Value

$127.78

PnL

+$46.47

Record

53%

8223-7324 (15547)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.95

Value

$65.36

PnL

+$33.99

Record

59%

3711-2579 (6290)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$41.9

Value

$51.48

PnL

+$86.54

Record

42%

7010-9803 (16813)

balthazar

Invested

$196.28

Value

$50.1

PnL

+$23.96

Record

53%

29253-26162 (55415)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$34.67

Value

$40.79

PnL

+$6.12

Record

20%

2587-10256 (12843)

StarMasterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.93

Value

$25.28

PnL

-$20.64

Record

53%

1906-1683 (3589)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.12

Value

$6.71

PnL

-$3.82

Record

66%

271-142 (413)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.7

Value

$5.7

PnL

+$0

Record

73%

12861-4791 (17652)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.25

Value

$5.2

PnL

+$0.94

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$3.97

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$2.82

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

RayGuyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.88

PnL

+$0.38

Record

—

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$218.13

Value

$0.52

PnL

+$39.08

Record

77%

12521-3667 (16188)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

113h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (14 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.