Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election by 12% or more?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$163.51

Smart Money Entry

82.4¢ → 98.2¢

+19% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$862.64

Total Shares1,018

Combined PnL+$130.72

Yes6 traders

Total Value$79.33

Total Shares902

Combined PnL+$32.79

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

62h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 70.6¢	$496.27	$426.13	+$84.31	53% 29191-26096 (55287)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 95.8¢	$328.2	$323.47	-$4.73	45% 2784-3336 (6120)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 72.9¢	$68.57	$105.16	+$36.6	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
└ No leg	Noavg 72.9¢	$48.33	$56.15	+$7.82
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 6.3¢	$20.23	$49.02	+$28.78
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 94.2¢	$56.5	$57.99	-$2.61	53% 22496-19712 (42208)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.1¢	$16.15	$48.46	+$32.3	71% 7095-2847 (9942)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 94.7¢	$52.55	$46.59	-$5.8	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
thanksforplayinCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$3.02	$13.34	+$10.32	56% 444-352 (796)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 11.3¢	$9.61	$8.47	+$59.55	42% 6979-9779 (16758)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.5	$6.43	+$2.37	65% 265-142 (407)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.8¢	$28.51	$6.17	-$11.84	59% 3711-2576 (6287)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yes	$4.59	$4.59	+$0	73% 12849-4764 (17613)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 5.9¢	$164.89	$0.34	-$0.37	78% 12472-3601 (16073)

balthazar

Invested

$496.27

Value

$426.13

PnL

+$84.31

Record

53%

29191-26096 (55287)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$328.2

Value

$323.47

PnL

-$4.73

Record

45%

2784-3336 (6120)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$68.57

Value

$105.16

PnL

+$36.6

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

Both legs:

No$48.3372.9¢+$7.82

Yes$20.236.3¢+$28.78

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$56.5

Value

$57.99

PnL

-$2.61

Record

53%

22496-19712 (42208)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.15

Value

$48.46

PnL

+$32.3

Record

71%

7095-2847 (9942)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$52.55

Value

$46.59

PnL

-$5.8

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

thanksforplayinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.02

Value

$13.34

PnL

+$10.32

Record

56%

444-352 (796)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$9.61

Value

$8.47

PnL

+$59.55

Record

42%

6979-9779 (16758)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$6.43

PnL

+$2.37

Record

65%

265-142 (407)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.51

Value

$6.17

PnL

-$11.84

Record

59%

3711-2576 (6287)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.59

Value

$4.59

PnL

+$0

Record

73%

12849-4764 (17613)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$164.89

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$0.37

Record

78%

12472-3601 (16073)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

62h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.2%

98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.