Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$27.06

Smart Money Entry

81.5¢ → 97.5¢

+20% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$948.01

Total Shares991

Combined PnL+$133.63

Yes6 traders

Total Value$209.46

Total Shares2,545

Combined PnL-$160.7

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (11 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 83¢	$549.18	$425.25	+$55.11	53% 29258-26174 (55432)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 81.8¢	$682.88	$351.44	+$6.35	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 15.4¢	$199.14	$161.03	-$143.17	45% 2824-3398 (6222)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 79¢	$15.8	$73.56	+$7.4	53% 22636-19888 (42524)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 84.5¢	$55.55	$55.01	-$0.01	14% 461-2758 (3219)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 83.4¢	$29.2	$32.18	+$2.98	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.1¢	$9.69	$27.69	+$18	59% 3713-2582 (6295)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.4¢	$19.51	$11.36	-$8.15	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 8.6¢	$7.44	$10.57	+$61.8	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
StarMasterCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$18.46	$5.36	-$13.11	53% 1906-1683 (3589)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yes	$2.42	$2.42	+$0	73% 12875-4800 (17675)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$36.6	$1.61	-$14.27	20% 2590-10277 (12867)

balthazar

Invested

$549.18

Value

$425.25

PnL

+$55.11

Record

53%

29258-26174 (55432)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$682.88

Value

$351.44

PnL

+$6.35

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$199.14

Value

$161.03

PnL

-$143.17

Record

45%

2824-3398 (6222)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$15.8

Value

$73.56

PnL

+$7.4

Record

53%

22636-19888 (42524)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$55.55

Value

$55.01

PnL

-$0.01

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$29.2

Value

$32.18

PnL

+$2.98

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.69

Value

$27.69

PnL

+$18

Record

59%

3713-2582 (6295)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.51

Value

$11.36

PnL

-$8.15

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$7.44

Value

$10.57

PnL

+$61.8

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

StarMasterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.46

Value

$5.36

PnL

-$13.11

Record

53%

1906-1683 (3589)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.42

Value

$2.42

PnL

+$0

Record

73%

12875-4800 (17675)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.6

Value

$1.61

PnL

-$14.27

Record

20%

2590-10277 (12867)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (11 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.46

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.