Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-01 House election by 0%-3%?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 87¢ · $696 held · ended Nov 4

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$695.6

Combined PnL

$63.99

Smart Money Entry

79.6¢ → 86.5¢

+9% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$690.48

Total Shares696

Combined PnL+$3.11

Yes1 trader

Total Value$5.13

Total Shares51

Combined PnL+$60.88

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 75.8¢	$946.86	$198.67	+$18.85	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
Istaroth	Noavg 75.3¢	$181.9	$140.01	-$10.23	14% 461-2750 (3211)
2B9S	Noavg 76.1¢	$127.52	$123.43	-$1.09	18% 4279-20045 (24324)
Anjun<$100	Noavg 85¢	$94.35	$99.9	-$8.33	55% 5019-4099 (9118)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 88.4¢	$53.02	$54	+$0.98	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 91.2¢	$28.3	$27.93	-$0.38	72% 13948-5333 (19281)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 82¢	$18.04	$19.8	+$1.76	42% 7010-9803 (16813)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 89.4¢	$18.77	$18.9	+$0.13	32% 2511-5383 (7894)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 77¢	$11.97	$6.23	+$1.48	42% 5392-7314 (12706)
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR	Yesavg 18.6¢	$307.62	$5.13	+$60.88	— 6-7 (13)
thanksforplayin<$100	Noavg 78¢	$1.67	$1.61	-$0.06	56% 452-353 (805)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$946.86

Value

$198.67

PnL

+$18.85

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

Istaroth

Invested

$181.9

Value

$140.01

PnL

-$10.23

Record

14%

461-2750 (3211)

2B9S

Invested

$127.52

Value

$123.43

PnL

-$1.09

Record

18%

4279-20045 (24324)

Anjun<$100

Invested

$94.35

Value

$99.9

PnL

-$8.33

Record

55%

5019-4099 (9118)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$53.02

Value

$54

PnL

+$0.98

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$28.3

Value

$27.93

PnL

-$0.38

Record

72%

13948-5333 (19281)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$18.04

Value

$19.8

PnL

+$1.76

Record

42%

7010-9803 (16813)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$18.77

Value

$18.9

PnL

+$0.13

Record

32%

2511-5383 (7894)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$11.97

Value

$6.23

PnL

+$1.48

Record

42%

5392-7314 (12706)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR

Yes

Invested

$307.62

Value

$5.13

PnL

+$60.88

Record

—

6-7 (13)

thanksforplayin<$100

Invested

$1.67

Value

$1.61

PnL

-$0.06

Record

56%

452-353 (805)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.9%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.