Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VT-AL House election by 35%-40%?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 89¢ · $77 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$76.52
-$5.34
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 probability<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $30.77 | $27.71 | -$3.06 | — 5-11 (16) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 96.5¢ | $28.95 | $26.82 | -$2.13 | 13% 55-372 (427) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $19.52 | $17.88 | -$1.64 | 53% 5602-5022 (10624) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $0.48 | $2.12 | +$1.64 | 41% 3102-4461 (7563) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $2.14 | $1.99 | -$0.16 | 51% 4602-4505 (9107) |
probability<$100Invested
$30.77
Value
$27.71
PnL
-$3.06
Record
—
5-11 (16)
Invested
$28.95
Value
$26.82
PnL
-$2.13
Record
13%
55-372 (427)
Invested
$19.52
Value
$17.88
PnL
-$1.64
Record
53%
5602-5022 (10624)
Invested
$0.48
Value
$2.12
PnL
+$1.64
Record
41%
3102-4461 (7563)
balthazar<$100Invested
$2.14
Value
$1.99
PnL
-$0.16
Record
51%
4602-4505 (9107)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.