Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-35 House election by 12% or more?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 64¢ · $818 held · ended Nov 4

Yes64¢No36¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$817.89

Combined PnL

$342.19

Smart Money Entry

18.7¢ → 64.3¢

+243% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes64%

No36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$549.61

Total Shares865

Combined PnL+$373.04

No6 traders

Total Value$159.58

Total Shares253

Combined PnL-$30.86

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754	Yesavg 25.7¢	$118.9	$281.25	+$162.36	— 9-6 (15)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 10.8¢	$108.71	$268.36	+$210.69	35% 17800-33165 (50965)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938ARB<$100	Noavg 90.5¢	$95.49	$108.52	+$13.03	45% 2525-3059 (5584)
└ No leg	Noavg 90.5¢	$90.5	$63	-$27.5
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 6.7¢	$4.99	$45.53	+$40.53
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 76¢	$95.69	$61.75	-$12.73	79% 12088-3268 (15356)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 73.9¢	$59.16	$50.4	-$8.76	53% 28804-25713 (54517)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 76.3¢	$30.52	$25.2	-$5.32	26% 353-995 (1348)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Noavg 75.3¢	$15.82	$13.23	-$2.59	59% 3665-2556 (6221)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 73.2¢	$5.24	$4.51	-$0.73	40% 2104-3149 (5253)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 73.2¢	$5.23	$4.5	-$0.73	55% 4365-3560 (7925)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754

Yes

Invested

$118.9

Value

$281.25

PnL

+$162.36

Record

—

9-6 (15)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$108.71

Value

$268.36

PnL

+$210.69

Record

35%

17800-33165 (50965)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938ARB<$100

Invested

$95.49

Value

$108.52

PnL

+$13.03

Record

45%

2525-3059 (5584)

Both legs:

No$90.590.5¢-$27.5

Yes$4.996.7¢+$40.53

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$95.69

Value

$61.75

PnL

-$12.73

Record

79%

12088-3268 (15356)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$59.16

Value

$50.4

PnL

-$8.76

Record

53%

28804-25713 (54517)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$30.52

Value

$25.2

PnL

-$5.32

Record

26%

353-995 (1348)

shiifooCTR<$100

Invested

$15.82

Value

$13.23

PnL

-$2.59

Record

59%

3665-2556 (6221)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$5.24

Value

$4.51

PnL

-$0.73

Record

40%

2104-3149 (5253)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$5.23

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$0.73

Record

55%

4365-3560 (7925)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.2%

64.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.