Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-28 House election by 6%-9%?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 99¢ · $375 held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$375.18

Combined PnL

-$4.66

Smart Money Entry

93.7¢ → 99.3¢

+6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$371.79

Total Shares372

Combined PnL+$63.89

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.39

Total Shares484

Combined PnL-$68.55

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 94.1¢	$96.01	$101.9	+$5.89	41% 6791-9646 (16437)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$79.6	$69.93	+$44.49	79% 12088-3268 (15356)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 89.6¢	$62.73	$69.93	+$7.2	61% 15726-10029 (25755)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 93¢	$55.4	$59.52	+$4.12	53% 28804-25713 (54517)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 95.4¢	$38.14	$39.96	+$1.82	49% 8636-9158 (17794)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 85.4¢	$24.2	$24.57	+$0.37	18% 4236-19937 (24173)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.99	$5.99	-$0	40% 2104-3149 (5253)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$60.47	$2.47	-$53.85	35% 17800-33165 (50965)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.4¢	$5.95	$0.44	-$5.51	59% 3665-2556 (6221)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yes	$0.43	$0.43	+$2.33	73% 12650-4633 (17283)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 9.2¢	$562.63	$0.05	-$11.53	45% 2525-3059 (5584)

godblessme2026

Invested

$96.01

Value

$101.9

PnL

+$5.89

Record

41%

6791-9646 (16437)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$79.6

Value

$69.93

PnL

+$44.49

Record

79%

12088-3268 (15356)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$62.73

Value

$69.93

PnL

+$7.2

Record

61%

15726-10029 (25755)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$55.4

Value

$59.52

PnL

+$4.12

Record

53%

28804-25713 (54517)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$38.14

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$1.82

Record

49%

8636-9158 (17794)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$24.2

Value

$24.57

PnL

+$0.37

Record

18%

4236-19937 (24173)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.99

Value

$5.99

PnL

-$0

Record

40%

2104-3149 (5253)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.47

Value

$2.47

PnL

-$53.85

Record

35%

17800-33165 (50965)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.95

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$5.51

Record

59%

3665-2556 (6221)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.43

PnL

+$2.33

Record

73%

12650-4633 (17283)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$562.63

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$11.53

Record

45%

2525-3059 (5584)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.